Trader’s Narrative

Here’s another indicator which dovetails nicely with everything else we’ve seen measuring the sentiment of the US consumer:

Source: Gallop Poll

First of all, who exactly are these people that are satisfied with things now? 7% is 21 million people!

In any case, the last two times that American’s were this unhappy during election time, the results were bad for the incumbent party. Change is a tough proposition for us humans. We much prefer the status quo. But when times are really tough, then we begrudgingly accept the need for change.

I was in Spain (but not in Madrid) when they had their version of 9/11. That tragedy totally changed the outcome of the elections. Before that day the polls were expecting a total crushing defeat for Zapatero but in less than a week it was the opposite.

Getting back to the chart, in 1980 Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter and in 1992 Bill Clinton defeated George H. Bush. You can already see this reflected in polls which put Obama way ahead of McCain.

Did you watch the third and final US presidential debates? To me it was just a replay of the other two. Each camp tried to score points by following a strategy. Obama by talking about issues and coming across as unflappable. McCain by attacking his opponent and coming across as angry and petulant. Unfortunately the issues matter very little because we aren’t robots but humans.

Without even realizing it, our subconscious makes a choice and we “like” a candidate more than the other. Then our conscious mind scrambles to find a rationale. Believe it or not, that’s how we make choices in life. Scary. But true.

Getting back to this election, did you notice how much McCain blinked? I’m bringing this up not to pick on the poor old man but because the blink rate is actually a very important social cue. And one which is instantly recognized by people even if they aren’t conscious of it as I was with McCain.

In a social setting non-verbal communication is more important than the actual message. McCain was sending a message that he is under stress and of a lower standing in the social hierarchy. This may explain why people see Obama as more “presidential” than him. You know the cliche of a “stare down”? This subconscious cue explains it as well. And this is why women generally blink more, especially when they are trying to attract a mate. Their body language is saying, “I’m docile, I’m gentle, come closer”.

Obama is lucky Gen. Wesley Clark isn’t sitting opposite him because he is a true outlier, with one of the lowest blink rates. If only it wasn’t blinking but winking… You betcha! Gosh Darn it by golly gee willikers (wink)…Palin would already be POTUS.

This is not photoshopped!

What the heck happened to McCain? was he trying to be goofy on purpose?