Trader’s Narrative

It is Friday, time for this week’s sentiment summary:

Sentiment Surveys
The Association of American Individual Investors’ weekly sentiment survey had the bulls at 28% again (a decline of 10% points) and the bears increased by the same amount to 55%. This definitely moves sentiment towards real pessimism. The bull/bear ratio is almost equal to late February. But we aren’t quite at an extreme point - yet.

In contrast, there is not much excitement in the weekly Investors Intelligence survey as it is almost unchanged from last week. The optimists number 42.7% and the pessimists 30%.

ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Poll
Although the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is the most popular measure of the economic mood of the average American, there are a few others. One of these is the ABC Newss/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Poll which has been conducted for almost 24 years, every week.

In contrast to the recent Reuters/Michigan Consumer data, this poll shows that US consumers are losing confidence. The past 3 weeks have it hovering at -50. In its entire history, it has only spent 14 weeks below -50 (with 8 out of those 14 occurring this year!). If this pace continues, it will be the worst year for this indicator yet.

Continue reading ‘Sentiment Overview: Week Of July 10th, 2009′