Trader’s Narrative

As I previously touched on, we had a 90-90 down day on Jan. 4th 2008. According to the Lowry’s study, all we need now is a 90-90 up day for a market bottom.

90-90 Day
Today wasn’t it. Although the market went up, it did so lethargically. Volume did flow in the right direction: advancing stocks in the NYSE were 1,003,680,000 compared to 401,066,000 declining stocks - a 5:2 ratio. And on the Nasdaq, almost 3:1. But we need much more excitement than that to forge an inflection point.

On January 7th, the S&P 500 put in a hammer-like candle (if you squint) with normal volume as traders came back from holidays. This was two days after I wrote Rally around the corner :

And although we still haven’t taken out those lows, the market is coiling into a tight range. If it reacts to the recent oversold conditions and breaks out, then the probability of it continuing and regaining lost ground is high. But it can also break down to retest the lows. Or even go lower.

The market is. No one can predict or control it. I’ve shared a thesis of where things may be, but I’ll let the market prove me wrong or right.

Stocks vs. Bonds
Right now, by several measures, bonds are expensive and stocks are cheap. I’ll go into this point more in depth in a few days. What matters though is that this important relationship is skewed towards a rally. But this is a myopic market. The only thing it can focus on is what is immediately in front of it. Which happens to be Tuesday’s expected announcement from Citigroup (C).

Being the market tell for the day, I’d suggest keeping a watchful eye on Citi.