Trader’s Narrative

Well, it is the end of another year. And if you are a trader, your thoughts turn invariably to the January effect and more specifically, how you can use this phenomenal annual pattern to generate alpha.

There are a few ways to take advantage of the January effect. My personal favourite is on closed-end funds (CEFs). I’ve outlined the whole trading plan here: My Year-End Strategy.

With the turmoil in the bond market this year, a lot of bond funds and other “yield” vehicles have gotten beaten to a pulp. Which means there are a lot of unhappy longs who are selling for tax-loss year end reasons.

I feel like a kid in a candy store this year.

I’ll just feature one example: BlackRock Municipal Bond Fund (BBK), but for a vowel, my namesake. Almost everyone who bought this this year is facing losses:

Notice the upsurge in volume - a telltale sign. And the way it has fallen to technical support at $14.

Hope you had a great year, and see you in 2008

I’ve mentioned several times that I prefer to look at Nasdaq numbers when it comes to breadth (in a non-cumulative way) because NYSE breadth numbers are “polluted” with non-common stock securities.

These are usually interest rate sensitive. They are municipal bond funds, bonds (yes actual bonds trade on the NYSE), CEF’s, and other weird and woolly financial concoctions.

The result is that these securities move like a great galloping herd. But they don’t move to the rhythms of the stock market. Rather, they take their cue from the bond market. So when you people get spooked about rates (thinking that we won’t see a rate cut or maybe even have a rate increase) these non-common stocks get clobbered.

And that effects the NYSE breadth numbers. Let me show you with one example. Here is the chart for BlackRock Municipal Bond Trust (BBK). Last week it sliced through its 200 day moving average (blue line):

Now look at the effect of moves like that one, multiplied by hundreds and hundreds of similar bond-like securities:

That is one really oversold market? Isn’t it? We are at the same extremes that we saw at the Feb-March 2007 market bottom. But are we really? Take a look at the Nasdaq advance decline numbers:

Oversold? What oversold? We are in neutral territory. And that is how the siren call of the NYSE breadth numbers can throw you off course.

If you’re interested to know how I trade these munis, take a look at My Year End Strategy.