I've been busy with other projects and life this last month. Boy I missed blogging. I'm really looking forward to continuing the blog and revisiting some of the previous posts.
I was the first trading blog to talk about Victor Niederhoffer's demise. Many lambasted me for "rumor mongering". The "rumors" turned to be true. Vic did in fact blow up. As with most spectacular blow ups on Wall Street, he will continue to trade but on a much smaller scale. Who knows? He might even make a comeback and go for a three-peat.
I'll follow up on MitoPharm's spectacular swan dive off a cliff. I did my best to warn people but as Lord Overstone said, "No warning can save a people determined to grow suddenly rich."
As well Agloco deserves some more thrashing since they have come out with a hilarious payment schedule. And of course, I'll also write more market related commentary where more than a few plates of crow are on the menu.
But I did mention, and I hope you listened, to "Sell Something!" when the S&P 500 was around 1520. Since then the indices moved slightly higher (1560) but for the most part chopped and are now lower (1460).
Calling the intermediate market top as well as repeated calls for a bottom in mid August and early September, are rare feats. I doubt I can keep this up. But it will be fun to try.
As you might have noticed, I removed Google Adsense and will be monetizing using more unobtrusive methods. I've also tidied up the place a bit and will probably spruce up the theme and upgrade to the newest Wordpress version in a short while. So bear with me if things get a bit wonky.
Amaranth Advisor's spectacular implosion has been all over the major newspapers, business tv and countless blogs so I won't rehash the story of how a supposedly 'hedged' fund made a tragic bet on natural gas and kept doubling down. We've all seen this classic pattern accompany each and every historic blow-up.
But for me the most interesting aspect of Amaranth's story is that it could very well be a tell for the Natural Gas market. If your memory stretches that far, think back to the late 90's when TMT was all the rage and everyone and their puppy wanted to get in on that 'space'. But over in the dank and dark corner of gold stocks and dedicated bear mutual funds managers were busy closing shop.
I've been bullish on natural gas for a while now but it hasn't worked out really. And in case you're wondering, I'm still bullish. I suspect that Amaranth's exit from the energy arena is a tell that natural gas will find support here and retrace some of its decline.
Because it's dangerous to go against the trend I would not play this with Natural Gas futures itself. It's way too volatile. Instead I would go for an equity proxy like natural gas stocks or Canadian energy trusts that are heavily weighted towards NG.Amaranth, blow up, hedge fund, income trusts, natural gas