Here is a simple chart showing the time I was away and what the market did in that time:
To refresh you're memory, back in spring, I wrote that based on what I was seeing in sentiment and the technical analysis tools I rely on, that the market had seen a major intermediate low.
And although the market did indeed manage to pull itself up, the rally was short lived. It was as if the market was made of ice and the increasingly hot summer weather was melting it drip by drip. Until finally by the time July rolled around we were below the spring "major" intermediate low.
So what happened? In the coming days, I'll go into that but in broad strokes because to go into it in any greater detail just wouldn't be practical.
Although my interpretation of things back then have been proven wrong, I've never shied away from holding myself as accountable as I hold others. It isn't just a point of honor but one of the best ways that one can hope to learn and improve.bear market, blog, break, intermediate bottom, market, vacation
I've been busy with other projects and life this last month. Boy I missed blogging. I'm really looking forward to continuing the blog and revisiting some of the previous posts.
I was the first trading blog to talk about Victor Niederhoffer's demise. Many lambasted me for "rumor mongering". The "rumors" turned to be true. Vic did in fact blow up. As with most spectacular blow ups on Wall Street, he will continue to trade but on a much smaller scale. Who knows? He might even make a comeback and go for a three-peat.
I'll follow up on MitoPharm's spectacular swan dive off a cliff. I did my best to warn people but as Lord Overstone said, "No warning can save a people determined to grow suddenly rich."
As well Agloco deserves some more thrashing since they have come out with a hilarious payment schedule. And of course, I'll also write more market related commentary where more than a few plates of crow are on the menu.
But I did mention, and I hope you listened, to "Sell Something!" when the S&P 500 was around 1520. Since then the indices moved slightly higher (1560) but for the most part chopped and are now lower (1460).
Calling the intermediate market top as well as repeated calls for a bottom in mid August and early September, are rare feats. I doubt I can keep this up. But it will be fun to try.
As you might have noticed, I removed Google Adsense and will be monetizing using more unobtrusive methods. I've also tidied up the place a bit and will probably spruce up the theme and upgrade to the newest Wordpress version in a short while. So bear with me if things get a bit wonky.