Trader’s Narrative

I’ve been “contrarian” bullish on US dollars ever since it cracked its long term support. It seemed to me that everyone and their uncle was short the dollar and although for good reason, it seemed like too easy a trade.

But sometimes you can over-think these things. And it looks like this was one of them:

Now everyone from the uber rich (Jim Rogers and Warren Buffet) to better looking uber rich (Giselle Bundchen and Jay-Z) are shunning the US dollar. The Brazilian supermodel is asking all her contracts to be paid in Euros and the rapper flashed Euros instead of greenbacks in his music video for “Blue Magic”.

You have to step back and wonder if this is all getting too much. When the public starts to make it emotional rather than rational, I start looking for the inflection point. But I’ve been wrong while they have been right.

The dollar didn’t even so much as pause on its way through long term support. And I mean really long term support. That technical support line goes back to 1990.