Trader’s Narrative

Believe it or not… welcome to the new bull market. Calculating from the depths of the November spike down (741.02) the S&P 500 has now rallied 20%+. Which means that technically, we are now in a very young bull market. The bear market lasted around 408 days and cut the index by more than half (52%).

Whether it survives to become a powerful bull or dies stillborn as merely an especially strong counter rally, is another question. One that at the moment no one can truly answer. But we’re seeing more and more signs that things look ok:

• historical 10 year returns
• Ford valuation model
• previous bears coming on board: Fleckenstein, Leuthold, Ritholtz, Kass
• etc.

Here’s another: the McClellan Summation Index has now curled up to form a bottom. And from a level last seen in 1998:

We may get confirmation of this nascent bull market in a few months time from other sources like the Coppock curve. But until then, only the brave (or foolhardy) should apply.

The picture shows one of the famous “Osborne” bulls that dot the landscape in Spain. They were originally used as massive billboards to advertise a sherry made in Jerez (a region in Spain) by the name of Veterano. After a law prohibiting the advertising of alcohol the government tried to take them down but there was an outcry from people who had by then come to see them as a cultural icon. A compromise was reached were the red lettering of “Veterano” was covered with black paint.

Interesting factoid: many of the statues have a couch or mattress directly under them as the folklore goes that couples that um… couple, under the sign will receive the fertility of a bull and conceive a child.

In the comments a few days ago I mentioned that I’ve gotten into yoga recently. John from MovetheMarkets, requested a picture of my yoga teacher but since I don’t want a restraining order slapped on me, here’s a video of a Ford model showing you some cool yoga poses:

I can’t believe it took me this long to discover yoga. As a fitness regimen, it fits the needs of traders to a tee. Or for that matter anyone that spends a lot of time in an office setting or sitting in one posture.

I noticed late last year that eventhough I had set up my chair and desk as ergonomically sound as possible, I was still finding myself hunching, leaning to one side or doing some other bad stuff for my posture. The result was that at the end of the day my whole body and especially my lower back were really cramped and sore.

I’ve found yoga to be an amazing answer. I know, I know. If you’re a guy you probably think of yoga as “wussy”. All I can tell you is, try it. If you like, try the moves in the video above. Just don’t hurt yourself. Then you’ll find out just how hard it really is.

I’ll share some specific yoga postures you can do while sitting down at a desk or in an office setting to get mini-relief during the day. There’s one specific one for the chest that I really love.

Till then, if you’re a trader (and you probably are reading this blog) I would encourage you to look into yoga classes. Most traders out there are guys. Guess what the predominant gender is in yoga studios around the world?