Trader’s Narrative

Guest post by Robert Folsom, senior writer for Elliott Wave International

The following text is courtesy of Elliott Wave International. Until Nov. 11, EWI is allowing non-subscribers to download their latest market analysis and forecasts for free, including Robert Prechter’s latest Elliott Wave Theorist and Steve Hochberg’s and Pete Kendall’s latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

Learn more about FreeWeek, and download your free reports here.

As you read and look at this page, please know that the chart is the star of the show. My description will add only a few details.

The chart published less than two weeks ago in Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. The rectangular box is plain to see: It envelopes the huge S&P 500 rally that began last March — a gain of 61.5% and 430 points, as of Oct. 18.

But there’s a two-part truth to the rally — and that is what the box really shows.

Part one shows the “wall of worry” — basically March through August. That’s when the media and experts were overwhelmingly negative about stocks. They were surprised by the rally. Remember?

Part two shows the more recent time of “euphoria” — basically September and October. The media and experts turned positive. The market was all about “green shoots” and “recovery.”

You see when most of the rally unfolded. Six months of serious worry produces a 373-point climb, whereas “two months of euphoria produces only 57 S&P points.”

Now, the two-part truth about this rally is an easy story to tell. It’s literally a few lines and notations on a price chart. Yet have you seen or read ANYTHING like this in the past two weeks? Has anyone else pointed out that over the past two months, the stock market “rally” has in fact slowed to a crawl?

As you looked at the chart, perhaps you noticed that the decline, which began in 2007, and in turn the recent rally, are both on a similarly large scale. The full version of this chart shows how important that “similarity of scale” really is (Elliott labels were excluded in consideration of Theorist subscribers).

Price action in the stock market this week has only strengthened the analysis in Bob Prechter’s October Theorist issue.

What’s more, you can read the very latest forecasts in the just-published November issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast — both publications (plus the tri-weekly Short Term Update) are yours for free — only during FreeWeek (now through Nov. 11).

Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the November Theorist

Robert Folsom is a financial writer and editor for Elliott Wave International. He has covered politics, popular culture, economics and the financial markets for two decades, via print, radio and the Internet. Robert earned his degree in political science from Columbia University in 1985.

By Elliott Wave International

It’s one of the first rules in the book of mainstream economic wisdom: a country’s economy is the thermometer which “reads” its stock market’s temperature. If financial conditions are heating up, stocks rise; if they are cooling down, stocks fall. Were it so simple — millionaires wouldn’t make up a measly .15% of the global population.

Obviously, there’s a major flaw with this logic; namely, it isn’t true. Time and again, stock prices smolder to near boiling even as economic growth chills to the bone. (The opposite also holds: Stock prices cool down even as the economy is on fire.)

Take, for instance, Germany’s main stock index, the DAX 30. On August 13, Europe’s number one economy reported a .3% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) — Germany’s first quarter of growth since January 2008. Soon after, the DAX began to rally and finished the day at a fresh, ten-month high.

In no time at all, every financial media outlet from Wall Street to la-la land had their story: “Germany’s DAX rose nearly 1% on the GDP data. The big picture will be one of ongoing gradual recovery through 2010.” (LA Times)

One problem: the DAX’s bullish flame has been burning since the index landed at a two-year low on March 9, 2009. YET — the economic data over those six months has been about as “hot” as the Arctic Circle. Here, the following news stories from the time say plenty:

• March 24, Wall Street Journal: “There’s a slew of evidence that Germany is in an economic freefall: A 19% drop in industrial output, a 23% decline in exports, a 35% drop in new manufacturing orders, and on. The numbers we’re seeing are just mind-boggling.”

(FreeWeek Kicks Off With Germany: On September 16, EWI launched its first-ever FreeWeek featuring its youngest subscriber services: European Short Term Update and Asian-Pacific Short Term Update. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity. Click HERE to sign on and get invaluable insight into Europe’s #1 market.)

• April 30, New York Times reveals a 17% year-over-year decline in Germany’s exports and writes, “With 47% of its GDP generated by exports, Germany would suffer a severe contraction in its economy.”
• May 16, Wall Street Journal: “In the fourth-quarter 2009, Germany’s GDP plunged 3.5%; its worst performance in nearly four decades.”
• May 17: Tens of thousands of German workers march through downtown Berlin to express their anxiety over the alarming increase in unemployment: at 7.7%.
• June 29 Associated Press: Germany’s GDP has now fallen by nearly 7% in the past four quarters with widespread expectations for a 5.5% to 6% contraction by the years end.
• July 3 WSJ: “Germany’s own recession is the deepest of any major economy in the world, apart from Japan.”
• September 8 speech by Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel: “We are in the worst economic crisis that the Federal Republic of Germany has experienced in 60 years.”

You get the picture: During the DAX’s entire six-month long winning streak, Germany’s economic figures have been bleaker than bleak. The mainstream correlation was broken in its box along with any preemptive opportunity to position for the uptrend.

That, however, was NOT the case for EWI’s European Financial Forecast. Here, the following archive of our analysis shows the extent to which objective analysis of the market’s internal measures keeps traders ahead of the biggest moves:

March 2009 European Financial Forecast (release date: February 25):

“We favor the fourth-wave contracting triangle interpretation for the DAX. The DAX broke through a solid support shelf at 4014 this week so selling pressure could intensify before we see a notable rally.” The end of the wave v decline should come near 3440.

March 6 European Short Term Update (ESTU):

“The DAX situation is similar to the entire region. We believe that the market is closing in on a low; perhaps it’s a week away from finding a decent bottom.”
On March 9, the index did indeed “find” its bottom at 3588.

March 13 ESTU:

“We must entertain the possibility that the low earlier this week may hold for a time, weeks or months, and the risk-reward equation is not as heavily favorable for the bears.”

So, where will Germany’s DAX be headed next? Find out at the unbeatable price of $0.00. No, that’s not a typo; it’s how much it will cost you to read objective insight, view original price charts, and receive trend-breaking, and making details about Germany’s DAX for a full seven days. These are just few of the benefits of EWI’s first-ever FreeWeek featuring European Short Term Update, and its Asian-Pacific counterpart.

FreeWeek continues from September 16 through September 23. Get all the details on how to participate in this amazing offer today.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Guest Post By Gary Grimes

The following article is adapted from market analysis by Elliott Wave International Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Now through July 22, Jeffrey Kennedy’s daily, intermediate, and long-term forecasts for up to 18 markets are free via EWI’s FreeWeek.

Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them.

EWI analyst Jeffrey Kennedy drives this point home during his live Elliott wave trading tutorial. It’s my favorite of his tips for trading with Elliott waves.

“Trade the pattern not the count,” Jeffrey says.

If you don’t recognize a pattern at a glance, don’t trade it – plain and simple. After all, your wave count can be wrong; the pattern cannot.

Does that mean you must know the exact wave count at a glance, as well? No. Simply spotting a pattern you recognize is where you should start.

Jeffrey scans hundreds of charts, clicking through them one by one, spending mere seconds with each. If he doesn’t spot a pattern he recognizes, a click of his mouse takes him to another potential opportunity.

Does price action look extended or choppy? Is it trading in a channel? Is it forming a wedge or triangle shape? These are some of the signals Jeffrey’s looking for. Each could help him identify – at the quickest of glances – whether price action is impulsive or corrective. This is the first critical step, Jeffrey says, to spotting high-confidence, Elliott wave trade setups.

That brings us to the following chart. Do you see a pattern you recognize? I do.

Look at the downward price action; the moves look decisive, almost in straight lines like impulse waves. Now look at the upward moves; they look indecisive and choppy like corrections. There’s also one down move that is clearly longer than the others – that’s almost certainly a third wave of some degree.

At just a glance, here are a few things we can determine:

• This is a bearish market pattern, because downward impulses are interrupted by upward corrections.
• The price action from September to November seems to be a pretty clear wave 3 down, followed by waves 4 up then 5 down, completing what appears to be a larger degree wave 1 in early March.
• Wave 2 follows wave 1, so the upward move starting in early March is most likely a larger degree wave 2.
• Wave 3 follows wave 2, so that’s what we can expect next.
• Wave 3 is never the shortest and often the longest of all five waves, so we can expect the next impulse move to take prices to new lows.

You see, with just a quick glance, we’ve put a finger on the pulse of the market. Negative psychology pulls prices down, and brief reversals of mood result in upward corrections – this appears to be a long-term bear market.

If you can gain this much insight simply by glancing at a chart, just think of what else you can glean by spending more time with it. Look at this pattern within a longer time frame, and you can determine the degree of trend (this one appears to be primary). Formulate Fibonacci price and time targets, and you can be confident about when and where prices will most likely turn.
There are literally hundreds of things you can do with a good chart, but none of them mean much unless you can first identify a pattern you recognize.

For more information on using patterns to spot trading opportunities, access Elliott Wave International’s FreeWeek. Now through July 22, all of EWI Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy’s daily, intermediate, and long-term market forecasts are completely free.

Speaking of the long term commodity bull market, our friends at Elliott Wave International have just announced the beginning of their wildly popular FreeWeek event.

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If you’re not taking part in EWI’s Futures Junctures FreeWeek right now, you’re already missing the valuable opportunities your peers are getting for free, and FreeWeek only lasts from noon Wednesday, July 15 to noon Wednesday, July 22. You only need to signup with a valid email. Dive into EWI’s FreeWeek Now!