Trader’s Narrative

Copper is famously said to have a Ph.D. in economics. So let’s see what Dr. Copper says:

By now you’re hard pressed to find anyone who won’t be bracing themselves for an economic slowdown. And that is reflected in the historic low of American’s satisfaction levels.

Interestingly enough, when the annual rate of change of copper futures goes into the negative, it signals a recession.

Of course, the National Bureau of Economic Research conveniently labels them after the fact. So we know that officially there was a global slowdown in 1998. And one that lasted from 2001-2003. Notice that this time though the rate of change is much deeper into the red.

Stock market investors and traders who are looking for a bull market may be mollified to know that the market is a forward discounting mechanism. So somewhere between 6-8 months before we are going to see an improvement in the economy, unemployment, real estate, etc. the stock market will shake off the bear market.