Trader’s Narrative

This is a guest post by Wayne Whaley

The markets tend to be in a good mood the week before holidays, since 1950, the S&P 500 is 40-19, up 67.85 of the time during the four day week (including Friday) of Thanksgiving for an average gain of 0.78%

On average, all of those gains come on the two days surrounding Thanksgiving, which are 51-8, up 86.44% for an average gain of 0.80%.

The week after Thanksgiving can be a bit of downer and the markets have a bearish tilt as well, 28-31, up only 47.46% of the time for an average loss of 0.24%

The Turkey trimmings really take their toll on the Monday after Thanksgiving, as it takes the big hit, 24-35, up only 40.68% of the time for an average one day loss of 0.38%.

The last five Monday’s after Thanksgiving have been down, including last year’s (2008) loss of 8.93%.

S&P 500 % Chg for Thanksgiving the Last 20 years:

I couldn’t distinguish a discernible difference in the data in up or down years.

It has been my observation that since these type trading strategies became well documented over the last couple of decades, they tend to be anticipated a day or two. Be careful.

Yes, I’m back!

I truly appreciate all the comments and emails from the readers. I never knew this blog was so important to so many people. My apologies for leaving for such an extended vacation.

Although it may not satisfy everyone, as way of explanation, I took some time off to recharge the batteries, wrangle with a nasty Firefox upgrade, move to new servers, a spiffy new computer system… and managed to squeeze in some strutting on the beach… throwing up gang signs. You know. The usual.

The Mozilla Foundation and I have kissed and made-up - having quickly forgotten and forgiving my flagrant dalliance with that spurious vixen, Opera.

Look forward to not just a return to the market commentary and analysis but new, interesting and surprisingly useful tools. Stay tuned

I’m back. My absence has been much longer than I wished. This was partly due to a technical glitch as well as a biological one (the flu). Here are a few pictures of what I was up to. You should be able to easily guess where I was:

You thought my sister’s view was great. This is what my brother sees every morning.

A very simple and elegant bridge over the canal running through the city.

A rowing team getting some exercise on the canal.

Here’s a view of the left side of the bridge (this landmark should give it away by itself).

And here’s a view of the right side.

Here’s another view of the landmark at night. They have a regular fire and lights show. Those are 5 massive natural gas torches that scream like jet engines. Atleast someone is happy that NG keeps hitting new lows.

I really like the futuristic design for their tramways.

The food was amazing. Here’s a wonderful presentation of a simple salad.

The gazpacho was the healthiest thing on the tray since it contained fresh vegetables and no preservatives, colorants nor additives.

You can’t go wrong with flan for desert.

Blackberry jam with cheese.

And to top it off, I ran into one of Ugly’s most gifted students.

I’m spending a few days visiting family. Here is my sister’s backyard:

Very early in the morning, you can sometimes see deer and fawn peering back at you from the edge of the water. Atleast this is what they tell me since I sleep in .

See you all when I get back.