Trader’s Narrative

Here’s a chart of +50 years of the intended Federal Funds rate:

Now is an appropriate time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture because what the Fed has just done is extremely rare.

It has reduced the interest rate by more than 43% in less than 6 months. To find such a frantic slashing of rates we’d have to go back to the Volcker years in the early 1980’s.

The only other time in recent history that is remotely similar is the aftermath of the 9/11 tragedy in late 2001.

What makes it intriguing is that unlike the 1980’s and 2001 when everyone knew something horrible had gone wrong, we don’t really have that now. I think it will take some time for us to understand just what happened.

It seems surreal now as we are going through it. Perhaps the only way to understand it is through the perspective of time. Who would have believed that the current credit crunch makes the 1998 crisis pale in comparison?

As the Fed Funds futures indicated, we got a 50 basis point cut. And since this was what the market expected and had come to rally for ahead of time, we got a muted response. I wrote early this morning:

“If we do get exactly 50 basis points, we could flail around and end the day unchanged for the most part.”

The text of the Fed announcement hints that there will be more rate cuts to come:

Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

The Fed’s scramble to lower interest rates is much more than just a preoccupation with the housing market or the stock market slide or the liquidity crunch or the multi-billion dollar Societe Generale fraud or any other one variable. It is about the US economy’s inevitable slide into a recession.

With the interconnectedness of world economies, you can bet this will quickly seep into Europe and Asia. I’m already hearing from friends and family overseas that business is slow.

Here’s an updated graph from Google Trends:

Notice how the first blip coincides with the Asian “flu” correction in the spring of 2007. But now its off the charts!