Trader’s Narrative

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Man does not live by bread alone.

And neither is the US stock market the only market out there.

But we usually tend to act as if it was the only one that counts. One of the many lessons I learned from Weinstein’s excellent book: Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, is to monitor global indexes. Cheesy title, but excellent book - if you don’t have it, get it today.

This takes on extra importance at important inflection points - which are difficult to spot in the moment, as you’ve no doubt noticed. While the US market is probably the most important in the world, due to the interconnectedness of our world, it can not decouple from the rest. So by comparing it to the others, we can gain insight into bull and bear markets.

So with that in mind, below is a (not so random) walk through the world’s major stock markets. First, let’s take a look at the European exchanges, then Toronto and the South American Indexes and finally, Asia.

Since looking at so many charts can be dizzying, I’ll keep tabs on a couple of specific technical criteria. For example, the slope of the moving averages as well as whether price is uptrending or downtrending (making a higher high and a lower high or vice versa).

FTSE (England)

• made a new low in March 2009 (still downtrending)
• yet to break above January 2009 highs
• slope of 200 day moving average is down
• 50 day moving average is below price & climbing

CAC 40 (France)

• made a new low in March 2009 (still downtrending)
• yet to break above January 2009 highs
• slope of 200 day moving average is down
• 50 day moving average is below price & climbing

Continue reading ‘A Walk Through World Stock Markets’

Today, most financial companies are an endangered species. But other brokers and investment banks may be struggling and getting government bailout money to spend on bonuses, Interactive Brokers (IBKR) goes from strength to strength.

They recently reported earnings for 2008 and for the first time they broke the billion dollar mark for income (before taxes and minority interests). When you consider this was done on revenues of only $1.85 billion, you get an idea of how tight a ship they run.

I’ve mentioned before that they are one of my favorite brokers and arguably the best broker out there for the non-proprietary trader. As a customer, it’s good to know that your broker is on solid financial footing - one less thing to worry about.

If you trade with them you soon get to love their SMART routing which gets you better prices at surprising frequency. Based on independent analysis by the Transaction Auditing Group, IB’s SMART routing beats the competition. You can get the full details here.

As well, they are continuing to roll out new products and expand their already impressive market reach:

• Korean Kospi 200 Futures and Index Options (for US resident customers) soon
• National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) equity - initially to residents of India but eventually to others
• …to be then followed by NSE index futures trading
• addition of American Century no-load mutual funds

You could argue that IB is becoming a quasi-prime broker. They are a one stop shop for equities, derivatives (options, as well as futures) in more than a dozen international stock markets. And they have forex to boot. Add to that mutual funds marketplace they implemented in recent years and you’ve got a top-notch brokerage firm.

But that doesn’t mean they are the perfect fit for you. I think they are definitely worth a look if you are an active trader or have a large portfolio. But you should do your own due diligence to find a broker that you’re happy with.

Here’s a chart of Interactive Broker’s (IBKR) stock price since their IPO:

As you can see from the chart, fundamentals count… but not really