Trader’s Narrative

It is official. And about a year too late. But the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) have spoken:

The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007.
Business Cycle Dating Committee

Way back in September 2007 I started wondering, “Are we in a recession already?” - then at the start of January 2008, officially called it: we are in a recession.

In that post I showed a chart of the Google trends for “recession”. By the end of January 2008, the Google trend for “recession” was off the charts.

Then most recently, I mentioned that according to Dr.Copper we are in a recession. If you look closely at that chart, the annual rate of change did go negative in early 2007 (just barely). But enough to warrant a signal, just as previous ones.

Even LOLcats got in on the act and signaled a recession before the NBER economists.

Economics must be the only profession where you can make a living driving by looking at the rear view mirror. Too bad traders can’t make buy and sell decisions once the charts have been printed.

When a widely popular site like icanhascheeseburger.com puts this up, it’s safe to say that not only has the concept reached everyone, but that “recession” has seeped into the very depths of our collective psyches:

Source: icanhascheesburger.com

Of course, as a contrarian indicator, the fact that we are in a recession may in fact be a condition of the new bull market.