Trader’s Narrative

The market seems to be holding on for dear life at a long term support level. The mid August 2007 low on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was 1370.60 and in mid March 2007 at 1363.98 - we closed today at 1373.20

But when I say long term, I mean really long term. As in back to the start of this cyclical bull market. Back, all the way to 2003:

Looking at things through this chart, not only are we at a major cross roads, the market looks like it has just printed a triple top or head and shoulder formation (squint if you can’t see it). Need I say that looks ominous?

And to complete the trifecta of bad technical analysis news, reknown chartist Stan Weinstein drew a line in the sand for the Dow, back in September 2007 (thanks Tom). He said this in an interview:

… my new level is 12,800. If at any point the Dow breaks down and closes - at the close below 12,800, that would turn what’s a problem market into a much bigger problem.

So there you have it. Things look bleak. Now is this the doom and gloom before the sun comes out again? is this the “wall of worry” that a bull market climbs? or is it the real deal? should we sell everything, buy gold and move to Montana?