Trader’s Narrative

There are just a few days left until we know who the next President of the USA will be. Here are two aggregations of multiple polls:

FiveThirtyEight is a relatively new site which has gained a lot of attention because of their methodology. They assign each poll a weight based on its historical track record, the sample size, and the freshness of the poll.

They run a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state to account for outlier polls and to put the data its proper context.

Finally, 528 simulates the election 10,000 times for each update to provide a probabilistic assessment of outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952.

The end result of all that? FiveThirtyEight is giving Obama a +96% chance of winning the election. This number fluctuates daily as new data is integrated. You can watch this and other information here.

But since this is a trading blog, lets take a look at the electronic markets where people don’t just give an opinion, they back it up with cold, hard cash. These “prediction markets” are also favoring Obama by a landslide.

Here is the intrade contract for Barack Obama, implying an 85% probability of winning:

Here is the Iowa Electronic Market for the US election, winner take all:

And here is betfair:

It seems like everyday another prominent Republican endorses Obama. People it seems, question his judgement, age and the tone of his campaign. The first and second go together because of his pick for VP, Sarah Palin, of course.

At first Palin energized the ailing McCain campaign but as people have gotten to know her more, she has become one of its biggest handicaps. From not knowing what the constitutional role of a VP is (”in charge of the US senate”), to wearing a $150,000 wardrobe and $22,000 make up artist while claiming to be a hockey mom, to not knowing what the 1st amendment means, to believing that the pledge of allegiance was written by the founding fathers, to not being able to name any media she reads, to not knowing any Supreme court cases other than Roe v. Wave, to not knowing the Bush doctrine…. need I go on?

I can’t blame anyone for being scared of this woman’s ignorance. As an average Canadian, even I know more about the United States and its constitution that her!

Who Wins? Who Loses?
Under an Obama administration the winners are clear, infrastructure companies, alternative energy companies like solar, wind, water/wave, etc. Defense spending and homeland security as well as big oil may have to butter their bread a little less.

What is amazing to me is that while the data historically has shown that Democratic governments have been a boon to the US economy, lowering unemployment, the deficit and even ushering in bull markets, the Republicans somehow have the image of being business friendly. Go figure.

While Obama’s provenance and religious leanings have been questioned, I find it rather odd because I find that that is one of his best strengths on the international front. Can you imagine the amount of goodwill that will be engendered in the Muslim world when the face that represents the people of the United States of America looks like them? What do you think that will say about the unity and diversity of the US? about its capacity for meritocracy? Maybe you Americans have never thought about it that way, but believe me, as an outsider, that is a major bonus that Barack Obama has.

Not that you should be voting for him based on that. Not at all. Vote based on the candidates’ judgements, platforms and ideas. If you are a US citizen, VOTE !!

Ronald Reagan Endorses Obama

Ronald Reagan did in fact endorse Obama. Ronald Prescott Reagan that is, the son of the former POTUS.

The only person it seems who hasn’t endorsed Obama is John McCain himself. Wouldn’t that be the ultimate move from a true “maverick”? to endorse your own opponent?