Trader’s Narrative

Market strategists have drawn a line and taken sides: is gold in a bubble? Jim Rogers and Nouriel Roubini had a verbal smack down via respective media interviews with the former manager of the Quantum Fund being the believer he’s always been in the power of commodities while the prophet of doom and gloom used the “b” word to describe the precious metal.

Now another pair of strategists have taken sides - although not as personal as Rogers and Roubini. Dennis Gartman, believes not only that gold is in a bubble, but that it should be obvious to everyone. But that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily climbing off the trend:

Meanwhile, David Rosenberg featured this chart to argue not only is gold not in a bubble, it is actually “cheap”:

Leaving aside the obvious arithmetic (instead of logarithmic) scale, comparing the S&P 500 index to the price of gold is a non sequitur. This is due to the incessant rise of the equity index, with that itself due to the survival bias built into the constituents that make up the S&P 500 index. And don’t forget a dash of inflation which pumps up stock prices and therefore, stock indexes. So a ratio of gold to equity prices will for the most part look like a ski hill - and be as meaningful.

I’m also puzzled why Rosenberg is so bullish on gold since he has been one of the prescient strategists who has beaten the deflation drum the loudest.

Market Measure of Forward Inflation
Other than the CPI figures from the US government sources, there is a market determined inflation measure. It is the implicit inflation as per the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The TIPS data that I showed back in 2008 is no longer published by the Fed. Thankfully, Bloomberg disseminates a metric based on the nominal forward 5 years minus US inflation-linked bonds forward 5 years. So basically, this is the average inflation that the bond market expects from 2010 to 2015:

Source: Bloomberg

In the final days of last year, inflation expectations were the lowest in a very long time, fallin to just 0.41%. Earlier this month they reached 2.89% but today’s forward inflation expectation was still a muted 2.68%. Clearly, the bond vigilantes are not signaling a runaway inflation debacle in the near term future for the US.

So can it be that gold is in an honest to goodness bubble?

Gold Sentiment
Here are two measures of sentiment for the precious metal. The recent survey of Bloomberg terminal users on their conviction for gold found a remarkable 94% to be bullish.

That is a new record high since the survey started in 2004. Unfortunately, Bloomberg’s survey hasn’t been very good as a contrarian indicator. But it has rarely been above 90%. The closest it has gotten to this level was at the start of the year in January 2009 when it reached 91% bullish. Back then, gold was $900/oz. While there is a short history, the sheer lopsidedness of the recent consensus makes it noteworthy.

Courtesy of Elliott Wave, we get another measure of gold sentiment:

The Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) has been at, or above 90 percent gold bulls since November 3, a string of 10 straight days. The only other comparable streak of optimism over the past 22 years of data is leading up to the December 2, 2004 gold high when the DSI was at, or above 90 percent for 20 consecutive days. At that time, prices made a high at $458.70, declined over 10 percent, and did not exceed the December 2004 high again for the next 10 months. But during this entire 20 day stretch, optimism never reached the single day extreme that today did, with fully 97 percent of traders optimistic on gold’s future prospects. This time, we expect a larger decline, one that lasts longer too.

Yesterday we looked at the strange behavior of US mutual fund holders in shunning equities and stampeding into bond funds. That lead to lively discussion with different comments on what this means. Leaving aside the various arguments on whether this is a good or bad omen for the stock market, let’s explore the US retail investor’s sudden love for bonds.

We’ve just woken up to the realization that we have our own “lost decade” for stocks. From 1999 to 2009 the worst asset class you could have chosen would have been equities. In contrast Treasury bonds returned 110%, second only to gold.

But similar to the importance of timing the stock market, when you purchase bonds is pivotal to success. While we use metrics like P/E ratios or price dividend ratios to gauge the stock market, the bond market is much simpler. According to a study by Vanguard, all we have to do is look at the current yield. If it is low, the future returns will be similarly low. If high, then future returns from bonds will also be high.

You can download the report from the Free Trading Resource section (Reports & Articles folder: “The Historical Impact and Future Implications of Extraordinary Markets”). Here is how they explain their historical study:

…we put the historical yield levels for the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury bond into quintiles and show the range of returns over the next 10 years for those initial yield levels. For example, with an initial yield between 7.8% and 14.0% (quintile 1), the subsequent 10-year returns have been between 6.6% and 12.3% per year. Intuitively, these high returns stem from the fact that higher initial yield levels have been followed by systematically declining interest rates over the subsequent 10 years.

Here’s the resulting chart:

In late 2008, during the darkest days of the financial crisis, the 10 year Treasury bond yields sunk to 2.2% (5th quintile). The current yield on the 10 year is 3.44% which puts it in the 4th quintile. Based on historical data (from January 1928 to December 2008) the median return for the decade ahead is only 3.2%. And if you really want to get technical, you would subtract a reasonable inflation rate - say 2%? - which would bring the return to almost zip.

This study proves what we all know intuitively. Current rates are extremely low and the probability is therefore skewed towards rising rates, which means lower future returns. The higher the rates rise, the lower that return. So if you really believe in the inflation boogey man, you would be actually avoiding bonds not running into their arms as the average US retail investor is doing right now.

Instead of buying bonds, if you expect runaway inflation, you should be buying Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) - bonds whose coupon increases along with inflation, and decreases with deflation.

A surprising number of retail investors are doing exactly that right now. Here’s an excerpt from a recent article from the Wall St. Journal:

Richard Seelig, a retired high-school math teacher in Pelham, Mass., bought shares of the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund last December for his Roth individual retirement account. “I looked at the amount of money the government was spending that it didn’t have, and I thought, well, that is going to come back to haunt us,” he says.

But we are not in an inflationary environment right now. The yield gap between TIPS and normal Treasuries is 1.8% implying that that is the inflation rate in the US right now. But that may be deceptive for two reasons. Everything we’re seeing right now in terms of economic measures is signaling strong deflationary pressures. And two, the strong retail demand for TIPS has pushed their prices higher.

Even as retail investors rush to put their money into TIPS, there is no guarantee that they will see a payoff. This is because as inflation is sighted by the Federal Reserve, they will raise interest rates. And as interest rates rise, the value of bonds will decline.

So current buyers of TIPS are not only betting that inflation will be higher than 1.8% in the future, they are also betting that the Federal Reserve will be a pushover. That assumption may come back to haunt them.

If the above arguments are not persuasive, here’s another. Based on the historical data for US bonds, Prof. Jeremy Siegel has plotted a cumulative return for this asset class over the very long term (chart to the left). Total bond returns move in slow, multi-decade arches swinging above and then below a regression line (red). Right now, the cumulative return for bonds is extremely high relative to their historical trend. A reversion to the mean will happen. The only question is when and how fast. For more information on this valuation approach, see this article from MarketWatch.

Two Wrongs
If the shunning of equity funds by US mutual fund investors is bullish in your opinion due to contrarian analysis. Then it is difficult to not be labeled a hypocrite if you also believe in a future inflationary Armageddon. Either the “dumb money” retail investor is wrong in disbelieving the equity bull market, or they are wrong in expecting inflation.

While I completely understand and empathize with the traumatized psychological state of the average US retail investor, tragically, it looks as if they are jumping from the frying pan into the fire.

Take it from the person who won the United States Trading Championship with profits of more than 440% in 1984 – there are five things that every successful trader needs to know how to do:

1. Have a method to trade.
2. Have the discipline to follow your method.
3. Get real trading experience, instead of only trading on paper.
4. Have the mental fortitude to accept the fact that losses are part of the game.
5. Have the mental fortitude to accept huge gains.

Bonus tip: Find a mentor.

That trader who won the championship in a record-breaking fashion is Robert Prechter, the founder and president of Elliott Wave International. Once you think you’ve mastered his 5 tips for how to trade successfully, then the best thing to do is to find a mentor. In this excerpt from the book, Prechter’s Perspective, Bob Prechter discusses how sitting at the elbow of a professional trader can make all the difference in learning the trade of trading.

Free 47-page eBook: How to Spot Trading Opportunities
Elliott Wave International has released part one of their hugely popular How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook for free. The eBook sells as a two-part set for $129. You can now download part 1 for free. Learn more here.

(The following Q&A is excerpted from Prechter’s Perspective, revised 2004.)

Question: Has any specific trading experience decreased your trading success?
Bob Prechter: Yes. My first trade in 1973 was wildly successful, and I was hardly wrong in my first six years at it. Then I had a big trading loss in 1979, and that taught me more than the wins. The best way to develop an optimal state of mind for trading is to fail a few times first and understand why it happened. When you start, you’re better off speculating with small amounts of real money. Using larger amounts of money will bankrupt you early, which, while an excellent lesson, is rather painful. If you want to be a trader, it is good to start young. Then when you lose your first two bundles, you can gain some wisdom and rebound.

Q.: It sounds painful. Is there any way at least to reduce the hard knocks?
Bob Prechter: There is one shortcut to obtaining experience, and that is to find a mentor.

Q.: Did you have a mentor?
Bob Prechter: In 1979, I sat with a professional trader for about a year. The most important thing he taught me was to keep trades small relative to your capital. It reduces the emotional factor.

Q.: How would one select a mentor?
Bob Prechter: The best way to select one is to find a person who is doing exactly what you would like to do for a living, then get to know him well enough to ask if he will tutor you or at least let you watch while he works. Locate someone who has proved himself over the years to be a successful trader or investor, and go visit him. Listen to him. Sit down with him, if possible, for six months. Watch what he does. More important, watch what he doesn’t do. Finding a guy who knows what he is doing is the best lesson you could ever have. You will undoubtedly find that he is very friendly as well, since his runaway ego of yesteryear, which undoubtedly got him involved in the markets in the first place, has long since been humbled, matured by the experience of trading. He will usually welcome the opportunity to tell you what he knows.

Free 47-page eBook: How to Spot Trading Opportunities
Elliott Wave International has released part one of their hugely popular How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook for free. The eBook sells as a two-part set for $129. You can now download part 1 for free. Learn more here.

According to the difference between 10 year nominal treasury bonds and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) we were headed for a major, even catastrophic deflationary scenario. Although the jury is still officially ruminating, looking at the market price of copper, it seems that the massive monetary and fiscal measures taken by the US and other major countries around the world have removed much of the risk.

As one of the most important industrial commodities, copper has a Ph.D. in economics. Since it is freely traded in a market, its price is decided upon by the wisdom of the “invisible hand”. Copper can even predict recessions! Right now, it is offering the first glimmer of hope within a very dark and gloomy economic outlook:

The lower window pane in the above chart shows momentum or more specifically, the annual rate of change. When it drops below zero, the economy tends to sputter. Right now, copper momentum is still mired in the negative. And to bring it back to zero, copper futures have to, at least, recover to $325. Which is a very tall order.

Obviously we aren’t there yet, but the rapid ascent which started late last year has already taken the industrial metal +50% from its low. So we if it continues in the same torrid pace, we’ll get there in no time. But no market is that simple, nor direct. Copper futures have jolted higher so within a shorter term time span, it will need to work that out before continuing.

But if we are truly in the first stages of a recovery, then copper is the commodity to watch. If the worst is actually over, then the price trend in copper will be the first to know. Way ahead of, and with much more accuracy than, any talking head on TV.

There is an tsunami about to make landfall on the US economy. But will it be inflation or deflation? On the one hand we have deflation propelled by the crushing of commodity markets: oil, gas, gold, etc… as well as the massive real estate implosion across the globe.

On the other hand, consider all the inflationary agents:

• loose US monetary policy the discount rate (as expected) being lowered to 1%
• a loose fiscal policy (in an assumed Obama Biden administration)
• a $1 trillion financial bailout
• IMF bailouts of countries such as Iceland, Pakistan, etc.
• loose monetary policy for all major central banks of the world

To muddy the waters even more, the US dollar has shot up to 2004 levels. Most would argue that a stronger dollar is deflationary. So amid all these cross currents, what can we expect as the net result? I’m not smart enough to wade through all the econometric data so I’ll let the market do that for me.

To get an idea of what the market thinks inflation will be we can look at the difference between the 10 year nominal treasury bonds and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) which pay a real rate of interest. The difference between them is the forward implied inflation:
Continue reading ‘A Tsunami Is Coming, But Is It Deflation Or Inflation?’