Trader’s Narrative

Here is a simple chart showing the time I was away and what the market did in that time:

To refresh you’re memory, back in spring, I wrote that based on what I was seeing in sentiment and the technical analysis tools I rely on, that the market had seen a major intermediate low.

And although the market did indeed manage to pull itself up, the rally was short lived. It was as if the market was made of ice and the increasingly hot summer weather was melting it drip by drip. Until finally by the time July rolled around we were below the spring “major” intermediate low.

So what happened? In the coming days, I’ll go into that but in broad strokes because to go into it in any greater detail just wouldn’t be practical.

Although my interpretation of things back then have been proven wrong, I’ve never shied away from holding myself as accountable as I hold others. It isn’t just a point of honor but one of the best ways that one can hope to learn and improve.

Yes, I’m back!

I truly appreciate all the comments and emails from the readers. I never knew this blog was so important to so many people. My apologies for leaving for such an extended vacation.

Although it may not satisfy everyone, as way of explanation, I took some time off to recharge the batteries, wrangle with a nasty Firefox upgrade, move to new servers, a spiffy new computer system… and managed to squeeze in some strutting on the beach… throwing up gang signs. You know. The usual.

The Mozilla Foundation and I have kissed and made-up - having quickly forgotten and forgiving my flagrant dalliance with that spurious vixen, Opera.

Look forward to not just a return to the market commentary and analysis but new, interesting and surprisingly useful tools. Stay tuned

I’m back!
I’ve been busy with other projects and life this last month. Boy I missed blogging. I’m really looking forward to continuing the blog and revisiting some of the previous posts.

I was the first trading blog to talk about Victor Niederhoffer’s demise. Many lambasted me for “rumor mongering”. The “rumors” turned to be true. Vic did in fact blow up. As with most spectacular blow ups on Wall Street, he will continue to trade but on a much smaller scale. Who knows? He might even make a comeback and go for a three-peat.

I’ll follow up on MitoPharm’s spectacular swan dive off a cliff. I did my best to warn people but as Lord Overstone said, “No warning can save a people determined to grow suddenly rich.”

As well Agloco deserves some more thrashing since they have come out with a hilarious payment schedule. And of course, I’ll also write more market related commentary where more than a few plates of crow are on the menu.

But I did mention, and I hope you listened, to “Sell Something!” when the S&P 500 was around 1520. Since then the indices moved slightly higher (1560) but for the most part chopped and are now lower (1460).

Calling the intermediate market top as well as repeated calls for a bottom in mid August and early September, are rare feats. I doubt I can keep this up. But it will be fun to try.

Blog Maintenance
As you might have noticed, I removed Google Adsense and will be monetizing using more unobtrusive methods. I’ve also tidied up the place a bit and will probably spruce up the theme and upgrade to the newest Wordpress version in a short while. So bear with me if things get a bit wonky.

I’m back. My absence has been much longer than I wished. This was partly due to a technical glitch as well as a biological one (the flu). Here are a few pictures of what I was up to. You should be able to easily guess where I was:

You thought my sister’s view was great. This is what my brother sees every morning.

A very simple and elegant bridge over the canal running through the city.

A rowing team getting some exercise on the canal.

Here’s a view of the left side of the bridge (this landmark should give it away by itself).

And here’s a view of the right side.

Here’s another view of the landmark at night. They have a regular fire and lights show. Those are 5 massive natural gas torches that scream like jet engines. Atleast someone is happy that NG keeps hitting new lows.

I really like the futuristic design for their tramways.

The food was amazing. Here’s a wonderful presentation of a simple salad.

The gazpacho was the healthiest thing on the tray since it contained fresh vegetables and no preservatives, colorants nor additives.

You can’t go wrong with flan for desert.

Blackberry jam with cheese.

And to top it off, I ran into one of Ugly’s most gifted students.

I’m spending a few days visiting family. Here is my sister’s backyard:

Very early in the morning, you can sometimes see deer and fawn peering back at you from the edge of the water. Atleast this is what they tell me since I sleep in .

See you all when I get back.