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Interview: Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow at Trader’s Narrative





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mike swanson wallstreetwindow
There are a lot of newsletter writers and stock market advisory services but I don’t feel comfortable recommending most of them. One exception is Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow.com. I’ve known him from way back before he even had a site or was charging for his services.

Although it is now almost forgotten, SiliconInvestor used to be a huge trading and investing forum back in 2000. That’s where Mike started to write about his thoughts on the market and individual stocks and setups. I remember it well because it was rare for someone to be so genuine, knowledgeable and to come across as just a really nice guy. If you know anything about internet forums, you know that those characteristics are in short supply. At a time when it wasn’t popular, he was bearish and made a lot of money shorting deflating tech stocks and then going long gold and precious metal stocks.

Eventually he moved to his own site and started a premium service charging for his services. But Mike does things differently. Since access to his membership site is closed for the majority of the year, he spends his time on giving his clients their money’s worth. He only opens it up two to three times a year to new subscribers.

This is your lucky day because today is one of those rare opportunities. And by tomorrow it will be gone.

What I like about Mike is that he doesn’t just say buy this or sell that. He gives you his reasons and really lets you understand his whole trading plan. Although he largely relies on technical analysis he doesn’t ignore other factors like fundamental value and sentiment. Oh, and did I mention he won a Robbins Trading Championship?

So how much does it cost? An annual subscription is $377.00 (or about a $1 a day) while a quarterly subscription is $150.

If you’re still not sure, then you should know that Mike has an unbelievable guarantee that I haven’t seen anyone else dare to offer: If you aren’t happy with your membership at WallStreetWindow, he will refund you 100% of your money.

And on top of that, he will give you $100 (if you ask for it). Yes, read that again.

Can you see now why I feel comfortable recommending this guy?

Here is our recent chat:

What do you think of this stock market?
I think we are in a vicious bear market that is likely to continue throughout the rest of the year. I saw signs of a top in October 2007 due to the faltering advance/decline line of the market and clear problems that appeared in the credit markets. By December I was telling my people that the signs were more than clear and we had to take the bear market seriously. Tha said though I tried to go long in January 2008 and got stopped out and wasn’t able to position myself on the short side until the market rallied in May.

Did you anticipate that the indices would fall so dramatically?
I thought the market was going to drop, but I was surprised at how this bear market has played out. The most surprising thing to me is how we have not really had many powerful rallies in this bear market. Everyone was looking for a big rally off of the November lows for instance and it didn’t happen. Not even much of a bounce.

What are your thoughts about the ’subdued’ VIX? or the CBOE put call ratios that have not shown any real ‘fear’?
I think it is very bearish for the VIX and put/call ratio not to be showing much fear as the market has been grinding lower the past few weeks. This is textbook action of what happens in a leg down during a bear market.

What do you see going forward and how have you positioned yourself or advised your clients?
I’m position righted not in cash and tell people that is the best place to be for now. I’m hoping for a rally to go short on, but in the end I really think there are going to be great opportunities to go long as a buy and hold investor when the bear market is over. Historically secular bear markets have bottomed out when the cyclical P/E on the S&P 500 falls below 10 and often below 7. We’re at 12 now. But when secular bear markets reach a bottom in terms of valuation you can find good solid companies on sale for ridiculous prices. You can actually buy stocks not just to speculate that the price will go up, but to get a solid dividend. I think these opportunities will actually be widespread next year, which is something I’ve never seen before in the US market and unfortunately most people won’t be able to take advantage of since they’ll be so beaten up by the bear market.

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One Response to “Interview: Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow”  

  1. 1 crusoeworld

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    this is simply the worst recommendation I’ve heard at the worst timing, you recommended a website purely looking for rally to short in the once a life time long opportunity… it hurts!

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