Comments on: Is The Market Confused, Or Is That Just Me? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-the-market-confused-or-is-that-just-me-1841.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 08 Nov 2009 03:56:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Johnny L http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-the-market-confused-or-is-that-just-me-1841.html#comment-34781 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 05:18:09 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-the-market-confused-or-is-that-just-me-1841.html#comment-34781 The financials are the foundation of the market; i.e. no lending, no expansion, no growth. As the financials go so goes the market. The longer it is propped up the uglier it will be. Cheers The financials are the foundation of the market; i.e. no lending, no expansion, no growth.
As the financials go so goes the market. The longer it is propped up the uglier it will be.

Cheers

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-the-market-confused-or-is-that-just-me-1841.html#comment-34775 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:04:24 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-the-market-confused-or-is-that-just-me-1841.html#comment-34775 Bill K, thanks for your analysis. I agree with your basic premise but I'm a bit more cautious re equities. Bill K,
thanks for your analysis. I agree with your basic premise but I’m a bit more cautious re equities.

]]> by: Bill K http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-the-market-confused-or-is-that-just-me-1841.html#comment-34770 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 14:31:50 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-the-market-confused-or-is-that-just-me-1841.html#comment-34770 Yes, The Market is confused! Here is my take on the confusion. I think that financials are the concern of the week because of WM and LEH but not the overwhelming all encompassing concern they were for the year leading up to the July bottom. To verify this fact one only needs to take a quick look at the XLF and see that it shows that financials have in fact performed much better then the overall market since the July bottom, when the financials led the way down. One of the main concerns Since July was inflation seemed to be making it nearly impossible for the economy to ignite a bull market again. This inflation reality and fear was caused largely by the commodity bubble that we were in. Now that the commodity bubble is imploding the traders are over analyzing this information. They think that commodities are going down because we have a much bigger leg down coming in the world markets and this will cause huge demand destruction for all commodities. But in fact, in my opinion, it is just as simple as another bubble bursting. So the commodity bubble bursting is a being mis-read as an ominous bad sign for the future when in fact it is just a huge positive for the market short term and long term. With this confusion theory as my guiding light, I have been getting fully invested on the long side in recent days every time the market sells off. I am no longer worried about financials, even though that was the guiding force down in past days. The government has clearly shown that it will not let the worst case possible happen to these companies. I subscribe to the double bottom successful retest theory, until proven wrong with a new low close below 1200 on the S&P 500. Just my 2 cents. Bill K Yes, The Market is confused! Here is my take on the confusion. I think that financials are the concern of the week because of WM and LEH but not the overwhelming all encompassing concern they were for the year leading up to the July bottom. To verify this fact one only needs to take a quick look at the XLF and see that it shows that financials have in fact performed much better then the overall market since the July bottom, when the financials led the way down.

One of the main concerns Since July was inflation seemed to be making it nearly impossible for the economy to ignite a bull market again. This inflation reality and fear was caused largely by the commodity bubble that we were in. Now that the commodity bubble is imploding the traders are over analyzing this information. They think that commodities are going down because we have a much bigger leg down coming in the world markets and this will cause huge demand destruction for all commodities. But in fact, in my opinion, it is just as simple as another bubble bursting. So the commodity bubble bursting is a being mis-read as an ominous bad sign for the future when in fact it is just a huge positive for the market short term and long term.

With this confusion theory as my guiding light, I have been getting fully invested on the long side in recent days every time the market sells off. I am no longer worried about financials, even though that was the guiding force down in past days. The government has clearly shown that it will not let the worst case possible happen to these companies. I subscribe to the double bottom successful retest theory, until proven wrong with a new low close below 1200 on the S&P 500.

Just my 2 cents.

Bill K

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