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Alright, so by now we know that the ISE sentiment data on the official webpage is wrong. Thankfully I was able to correct it as best as possible. It helped that only the past few data points are suspect.
In any case, seeing how the ISE sentiment helped me turn cautious just at the top of this market swing, I’m not giving up on it yet.
But I’m reduced to using my own graph (see below) as their’s is wrong (and still neither corrected nor noted as such). Sheesh. I hope they get their act together. So the chart uses correct data (as far as I can be sure) not that crazy 51 data point.
I looked at the 10 day moving average as my guide, just as before. This time however this short term moving average is saying that the ISE sentiment index is about as low as it has been. Other than the March 2007 bottom, to find a similarly low reading we’d have to go back to the end of the bear market.
I’d still like to see atleast one day of major capitulation showing up on the ratio. Something in the range of 50-60. And atlhough we may get it, it may not be necessary. Rather than a whoosh down which has been the script so far, we could just meander and muddle through for a bit as people are bored to death rather than scared to death.
Thin green line is the 10 day moving average of the ISE Sentiment Index while the thick blue line is evryone’s favourite market proxy.
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