Comments on: ISE Sentiment: Market Due For Recovery http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:24:04 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Forbes Fortunte Economist Magazine Cover Story Contrarian Sentiment http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-16096 Fri, 07 Sep 2007 21:48:16 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-16096 [...] ISE Sentiment Index Although technically a measure of options activity (ratio of puts to calls), the ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE) reached a 32 trading day high yesterday at 151. Today’s reading hasn’t been release but going by the intraday data, my guesstimate is in the high 140 range. The 10 day moving average of the ISE put/call ratio has reached 118, well off its multi-year low in the 90’s range - where it gave a wonderful signal to mark the inflection point. [...] […] ISE Sentiment Index Although technically a measure of options activity (ratio of puts to calls), the ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE) reached a 32 trading day high yesterday at 151. Today’s reading hasn’t been release but going by the intraday data, my guesstimate is in the high 140 range. The 10 day moving average of the ISE put/call ratio has reached 118, well off its multi-year low in the 90’s range - where it gave a wonderful signal to mark the inflection point. […]

]]> by: Sentiment Overview For Week Of August 17th 2007 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-14188 Fri, 17 Aug 2007 22:25:00 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-14188 [...] ISEE Call Put Ratio As I pointed out although the ISE call put ratio didn’t reach a daily extreme reading, the ISEE index’s 10 day moving average did fall to historic lows seen only twice before. Things have been a bit wonky with the ISE and eventhough I’m pretty sure this data is accurate my trust has been eroded by their inexcusable lack of transparency and communication about their error. [...] […] ISEE Call Put Ratio As I pointed out although the ISE call put ratio didn’t reach a daily extreme reading, the ISEE index’s 10 day moving average did fall to historic lows seen only twice before. Things have been a bit wonky with the ISE and eventhough I’m pretty sure this data is accurate my trust has been eroded by their inexcusable lack of transparency and communication about their error. […]

]]> by: Dave http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13584 Thu, 16 Aug 2007 04:55:56 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13584 Babak, I get my money flows from AMG Data Services. The flows from last week include ETFs. in addition to other domestic fund inflows, and the sum inflow was $10 billion. I suspect such monies will be off the table when we truly hit bottom. Yes, I'm referring to the Panic/Euphoria model that was yanked from Barron's. Nobody likes it. I could have been more clear about the issue of over-optimism. What I mean is this model tended to be in the panic zone for months at a time through the recent bull market. As a contrary indicator though, it turns out it was pretty accurate. I'll post flows and the Panic/Euphoria if anyone is interested. Can also post insider trading data. Any way you can post AAII and Advisor Sentiment weekly? Babak, I get my money flows from AMG Data Services. The flows from last week include ETFs. in addition to other domestic fund inflows, and the sum inflow was $10 billion. I suspect such monies will be off the table when we truly hit bottom.

Yes, I’m referring to the Panic/Euphoria model that was yanked from Barron’s. Nobody likes it. I could have been more clear about the issue of over-optimism. What I mean is this model tended to be in the panic zone for months at a time through the recent bull market. As a contrary indicator though, it turns out it was pretty accurate.

I’ll post flows and the Panic/Euphoria if anyone is interested. Can also post insider trading data. Any way you can post AAII and Advisor Sentiment weekly?

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13560 Wed, 15 Aug 2007 21:15:47 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13560 Dave, what puzzles me is that in the past week or so when the market has gone down oftentimes the ISEE would uptick. I don't think that happened today but still as you say it is both puzzling and alarming. Q:what do you mean by inst. funds? do you mean fund flows? and where do you access the citigroup sentiment model? was this the one that was yanked from Barron's? Dave, what puzzles me is that in the past week or so when the market has gone down oftentimes the ISEE would uptick. I don’t think that happened today but still as you say it is both puzzling and alarming.

Q:what do you mean by inst. funds? do you mean fund flows? and where do you access the citigroup sentiment model? was this the one that was yanked from Barron’s?

]]> by: Dave http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13529 Wed, 15 Aug 2007 05:44:00 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13529 I'm learning a lot by reading your excellent posts but the interpretation of the most recent ISE numbers, as foretelling a recovery, has me scratching my head a little. The reading is lower than it was a month ago, but it is significantly higher than last summer, or last March, when people really showed some panic about stocks. We're approaching panic, but don't have it yet. Hate to say it, but the stubbornly high ISE number suggests that lots of other people are expecting that it won't be necessary for us to experience a more serious, steeper decline than we're already experiencing. So, the ISE Sentiment suggests to me that this is probably going to get a good bit more painful. Do you follow the Citigroup Panic/Euphoria model? It is also stubbornly in neutral, although it, too, declined over the past week. This sentiment indicator gets a bad wrap as being too optimistic but it seems to have been appropriately optimistic in the past, in retrospect. Right now it is in neutral, which is somewhat unusual over the past several years. The last time it registered panic was in March. Note that this indicator takes into account advisor sentiment and monetary trends. Before I forget, institutional funds added about $10 billion last several days. Maybe institutions are just getting smarter, but I don't think so. Another "optimistic" omen in my opinion. In sum, we appear to be in store for more pain. I’m learning a lot by reading your excellent posts but the interpretation of the most recent ISE numbers, as foretelling a recovery, has me scratching my head a little.

The reading is lower than it was a month ago, but it is significantly higher than last summer, or last March, when people really showed some panic about stocks. We’re approaching panic, but don’t have it yet.

Hate to say it, but the stubbornly high ISE number suggests that lots of other people are expecting that it won’t be necessary for us to experience a more serious, steeper decline than we’re already experiencing. So, the ISE Sentiment suggests to me that this is probably going to get a good bit more painful.

Do you follow the Citigroup Panic/Euphoria model? It is also stubbornly in neutral, although it, too, declined over the past week. This sentiment indicator gets a bad wrap as being too optimistic but it seems to have been appropriately optimistic in the past, in retrospect. Right now it is in neutral, which is somewhat unusual over the past several years. The last time it registered panic was in March. Note that this indicator takes into account advisor sentiment and monetary trends.

Before I forget, institutional funds added about $10 billion last several days. Maybe institutions are just getting smarter, but I don’t think so. Another “optimistic” omen in my opinion.

In sum, we appear to be in store for more pain.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13511 Tue, 14 Aug 2007 20:07:13 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13511 Dave, I called the ISE and also confirmed with Jason's SentimenTrader.com Aaron, problem is everyone is waiting for the other guy to capitulate ;-) Dave, I called the ISE and also confirmed with Jason’s SentimenTrader.com

Aaron, problem is everyone is waiting for the other guy to capitulate ;-)

]]> by: Aaron http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13510 Tue, 14 Aug 2007 20:05:51 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13510 I think some good capitulation is what this market needs. The market is getting close to a panic selloff, but its not quite there yet. We need just a little more negativity and pessimism to let it bottom out. I think some good capitulation is what this market needs. The market is getting close to a panic selloff, but its not quite there yet. We need just a little more negativity and pessimism to let it bottom out.

]]> by: Dave http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13488 Tue, 14 Aug 2007 14:52:04 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ise-sentiment-market-due-for-recovery-1255.html#comment-13488 Thank you for the update. Where are you getting your ISE data from? I'm having a bit of a struggle with this because I don't know how to tell what's accurate and what's not. Thank you for the update. Where are you getting your ISE data from? I’m having a bit of a struggle with this because I don’t know how to tell what’s accurate and what’s not.

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