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Market Recovers From Panic Capitulation at Trader’s Narrative

While everyone waited for the open of today’s market with bated breath, the word crash was thrown around like confetti. Retail investors crapped their pants (again). Here are a few frontpage stories from digg:

negative digg stock market plunge

That’s notable because digg occupies itself usually with technology and science news. The stock market and the economy rarely make it to the front page. When they do, it is sensationalist headlines like those above… which makes for great a contrarian indicator.

With so much anticipation, the only prediction that came true was the Fed “surprise” rate cut that had been telegraphed weeks ago. The market certainly did not crash. It quickly recovered after the gap down from overnight trading.

The volatility indices finally spiked higher: VIX reached a high of 37.57 and the VXN 40.77 - an almost 5 year high.

I was surprising to find that the number of Nasdaq stocks above their long term (200 day) moving average reached a low not seen since 2002:

percent nasdaq stocks 200 MA

This indicator is saying that the market’s internal breadth is as bad as it was in the final days of the bear market. I don’t know what to make of this since we only reached such horrendous levels after a brutal 3 year bear market.

Now, we are nowhere near that kind of market condition. Even so, here we are - as oversold as then.

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