Comments on: Market Recovery Continues But Few Believe In It http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:06:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: LP http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30547 Fri, 15 Feb 2008 17:40:10 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30547 Keith I totally concur with the Thud theory...when that comes out either up or down...then I know it's over....until then I will just have to observe a safe technical level for a Long and Short... Keith I totally concur with the Thud theory…when that comes out either up or down…then I know it’s over….until then I will just have to observe a safe technical level for a Long and Short…

]]> by: Keith Shepard http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30538 Fri, 15 Feb 2008 16:38:17 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30538 I think another reason is the slow-motion pummeling of bad "fundamental" news that continues to drip into our trading psyche. Day after day, it's this: » <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#38;sid=aK.SmXT4xRQw&#38;refer=home" rel="nofollow">U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops to 16-Year Low</a> Even I, a mechanical trader, find it hard to believe in a "bottom". I think as Brian over at <a href="http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">AlphaTrends.net</a> likes to say, "bottoms and tops are a process and not an event". To me, there are a lot of technicals lining up to begin the bottoming process, but in the short term, the fundamentals just haven't exhausted the downside enough. The bad news is still too slow to come out. There needs to be that "thud" of collective angst. I think another reason is the slow-motion pummeling of bad “fundamental” news that continues to drip into our trading psyche. Day after day, it’s this:

» U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops to 16-Year Low

Even I, a mechanical trader, find it hard to believe in a “bottom”. I think as Brian over at AlphaTrends.net likes to say, “bottoms and tops are a process and not an event”. To me, there are a lot of technicals lining up to begin the bottoming process, but in the short term, the fundamentals just haven’t exhausted the downside enough.

The bad news is still too slow to come out. There needs to be that “thud” of collective angst.

]]> by: LP http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30377 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 19:17:43 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30377 I will have to agree with Malcom X. I'm not sure why people are such a hurry to get back into the markets. Many bear markets just get stuck in a range where the bottom gets tested several times anyway. Yeah there's a possibility that we may never see the lows again, but I'd rather wait a bit longer. I think most people who are busy calling a bottom are the ones with open positions. I think patience may pay off big time. Imagine getting companies like GS at a 40 - 50% discount. I would rather wait for something like that even if it means I will be disappointed and forced to buy them at 200. I will have to agree with Malcom X. I’m not sure why people are such a hurry to get back into the markets. Many bear markets just get stuck in a range where the bottom gets tested several times anyway. Yeah there’s a possibility that we may never see the lows again, but I’d rather wait a bit longer. I think most people who are busy calling a bottom are the ones with open positions. I think patience may pay off big time. Imagine getting companies like GS at a 40 - 50% discount. I would rather wait for something like that even if it means I will be disappointed and forced to buy them at 200.

]]> by: MalcomX http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30374 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 19:09:45 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30374 People have been calling a bottom in this market for weeks. We are soon rolling in on the fourth?? week that people have called this a trade-able rally yet the S&#38;P return over that period of time is zero to negative depending on when one bought. The rally is very thin and originally was led by short covering in financials then the same old commodity trade as hot money rolls into ag now. The S&#38;P is all that matters. What is the S&#38;P telling you?? People have been calling a bottom in this market for weeks. We are soon rolling in on the fourth?? week that people have called this a trade-able rally yet the S&P return over that period of time is zero to negative depending on when one bought.

The rally is very thin and originally was led by short covering in financials then the same old commodity trade as hot money rolls into ag now. The S&P is all that matters. What is the S&P telling you??

]]> by: LP http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30300 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 13:21:16 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-recovery-continues-but-few-believe-in-it-617.html#comment-30300 I'm not buying this rally because of the financials. Most of them are seriously lagging behind. This doesn't not mean that today will not be huge huge up day for them, but it would be nice to see them doing much better. Plus the volume has been so so. Two factors that hold me back. But then again isn't the market here to disappoint the most number of participants? So the question remains are there more short sellers than long buyers? I’m not buying this rally because of the financials. Most of them are seriously lagging behind. This doesn’t not mean that today will not be huge huge up day for them, but it would be nice to see them doing much better. Plus the volume has been so so. Two factors that hold me back. But then again isn’t the market here to disappoint the most number of participants? So the question remains are there more short sellers than long buyers?

]]>