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Morning Notes For August 27th 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For August 27th 2010

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The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

  • German consumer climate will see further improvement in September 2010, following a strong rise in August sentiment. Largely driven by a strong rise in economic and income expectations while at the same time the propensity to buy remained stable. In Q2 2010, private consumption grew for the first time following three consecutive quarterly contractions. – RGE Monitor – Germany is a bright spot in an otherwise grim world of economic data.
  • SEC promises more actions against financial industry; in wake of the Goldman settlement, FT article says the SEC is planning on bringing more enforcements; there are said to be a sig. number of enforcement actions in the pipeline (FT)
  • CoreLogic Releases Q2 Negative Equity Report - more than 11 million, or 23 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages, were in negative equity at the end of 2Q 2010, down from 11.2 million and 24 percent from the first quarter of 2010. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity. Corelogic
  • Investor sentiment – bullish outlooks fall to credit-crisis lows (this was out earlier on Thurs) – the number of individual investors who have a bullish outlook for the next 6 months fell to 21%. CNB

AAII US Investor Sentiment – Bulls minus Bears
AAII bull bear spread Aug 2010

  • Most other sentiment indicators are showing an equal or greater amount of pessimism than this. Generally speaking, that is contrarily bullish but looking at such information is by no means infallible. Nonetheless, it is one piece of the puzzle showing us that a good deal of negativity is being priced in.
  • Many companies are encouraging their workers to nap on the job – “Napping Gets a Nod at the Workplace”. NKE workers now have access to nap-friendly “quiet rooms” and GOOG has “a number of futuristic napping pods” throughout its campus. BusinessWeek
  • Not a whole lot of new stuff today, all eyes are on Bernanke’s highly anticipated speech at 10 am EST.

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