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Morning Notes For July 13th 2010 at Trader’s Narrative




Morning Notes For July 13th 2010


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The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. Please provide feedback in the comments:

  • Alcoa kicks off earnings season with a beat and higher guidance…up ~4.4% in pre-market.
  • confidence in Obama WaPoABC poll Jul 2010

  • Public confidence in President Obama hit a new low, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Four months before midterm elections that will define the second half of his term, nearly six in 10 voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and a clear majority once again disapproves of how he is dealing with the economy. - WaPo
  • As Gen. David Petraeus takes charge of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the majority of Americans like him personally and at the same time see the conflict there going badly for the U.S: 56% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 34% Never heard of him/no opinion – GallupDoes this guy have a party affiliation?
  • The fate of the gushing Gulf of Mexico oil well, and of deep-water oil drilling in general, remained very much unresolved Monday, even as BP engineers finally installed a massive new sealing cap that could potentially enable them to shut down the well permanently. – WP
  • On July 12, S&P reaffirmed the UK’s AAA rating but maintained its negative outlook. According to S&P, “A number of large and politically challenging spending decisions are still to be made, and Standard & Poor’s medium-term economic forecasts for the UK are less optimistic than the assumptions underlying the budget.” – RGE Monitor
  • RGE Strategy View by Lee Hudson Teslik, Arnab Das and Rachel Ziemba: Gold is back in vogue as an alternative to fiat money and as a hedge against extreme tail risks—which now include both high inflation and deflation. For the better part of ten years running, gold has outperformed all of the core asset classes, gaining an average 15.3% per year in dollar terms since January 2001. – RGE Monitor
  • Greece debt auction called “OK” - sells Euro 1.625B worth of 26-week bills Tuesday morning, its first sale since being bailed out by the EU; the bills yielded 4.65%; the bid/cover was 3.64x; the fact the sale happened is being viewed as somewhat encouraging, although keep in mind this is just 26-week paper (Greece dropped plans for a 52-week sale) and had a pretty steep yield. - Reuters
  • Spanish debt gets vote of confidence from China – China apparently bought several hundred million worth of Spanish bonds last week according to the FT (China’s SAFE was allocated ~EU400M worth of Spain’s 10 year bonds last week after having submitted an order for EU1B) – FT – this is huge!
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    3 Responses to “Morning Notes For July 13th 2010”  

    1. 1 thunderbird

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      Eesh… I don’t understand Americans. More confidence in the Republicans? To what? Cause more oil spills? Eliminate health care? Create larger unsustainable budget deficits?

      You might say that we in Canada have a “politer” political system… but one thing we do have that you guys don’t is more than one party that remind the nation of the other’s mistakes through vicious public attacks.

      I would strongly agree that the US Dems are a bunch of pantywaist sissies who don’t know how to fight for what’s best even if they had a clue what the best was, that’s about it.

    2. 2 Anon

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      thunderbird, you should re-read exactly what those percentages mean.

      “(percent of voters saying ‘just some’ or ‘none’)”

    3. 3 bastiches

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      Standard WaPo polling issues:
      a) no method of weighting listed
      b) the question in the graphic is a sloppy conflation of two different categories, Just Some and None at All

      Obama
      Some - 28 None - 29
      Reps
      Some - 43 None - 29
      Dems
      Some - 35 None - 32

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