The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome you feedback in the comments:
- BP replaces Hayward – For a London-based petroleum company that relies largely on oil produced in the United States and Russia, Robert Dudley might be just the ticket. – WP
- A panel of world financial officials has reached “broad agreement” on new rules to govern the global banking system but has postponed some key elements for as long as seven years while the impact is studied, the Switzerland-based group said Monday. – WP
- EU bank CDS – continues to tighten – Santander -11bp, BNP -7bp, Commerzbank -9bp, Agricole -4.6bp, HSBC -5bp, ING -4.5bp, RBS -11bp. Post earnings, DB is 8bp tighter and UBS is flattish.
CDS Pricing on some Euro Banks
- Stimulus debate heats up according to the WSJ – fight breaking out in Washington about whether it is more beneficial to continue spending or if politicians should start focusing on the deficit; public opinion seems to be w/the deficit fighters – WSJ
- States expect tax collections to increase going forward - Most state governments project that the 2010 fiscal year was the trough in tax collections and expect tax revenues to rise in 2011; most states still face large deficits though; also – the coming expiration of federal stimulus funds could mean trouble for state budgets – WSJ
- Home supply to increase – cautious WSJ article – while the supply of housing may be @ a 47-yr low now, it is set to increase going forward as foreclosed homes hit the market and construction ramps up – WSJ
- Treasuries could suffer as panic abates around Europe - absent panic flows from Europe, 10-year note yields should be 60 to 100 basis points higher – FT
- The Fed’s easy policy starting to get crimp bank earnings – for most of ’09 and ’10, the ultra-accommodative policy from the Fed helped give a boost to bank earnings; but now, it is putting substantial pressure on NIMs and hurting bank’s ability to make money. Bloomberg
- Banks are flush w/so much liquidity that some are starting to turn away deposits; the worry is that excess liquidity could be a drag on earnings in the coming quarters – American Banker
- Financial regulatory reform - Moody’s says the net impact of the reforms on US banks will be a modest positive for their stand-alone financial strength ratings….however, debt and deposit ratings of some banks could come under pressure as Moody’s assumptions re government support are reduced.
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