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Morning Notes For Juy 9th 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For Juy 9th 2010

The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. Please provide some feedback in the comments:

  • Russia has agreed to swap four prisoners for the 10 alleged Russian spies who pleaded guilty in Manhattan Friday, according to court documents. – Washington Post
  • Changing of the guard – The once mighty GE peaked at a market cap of $592.7 Billion in September 2000. In December 2000 Apple hit a low of $4.72 Billion. Now Apple is in second place at $234.8b behind Exxon at $300.8b.

market cap Apple Microsoft GE Exxon Jul 2010

  • South Korea makes surprising rate hike - boosted the 7 day repo rate to 2.25 percent from a record low 2 percent; NYT says “In Asia, Era of More Expensive Borrowing Is In Full Swing” – Malaysia, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Australia have all started to tighten policy. – Bloomberg
  • White House launching reach-out campaign to business (this was first reported by Fox Business late on Wed and Politico picked it up late on Thurs) – the White House has launched an initiative to combat the perception that it’s anti-business – Politico – Viewing this strictly from a market perspective (not political), it could be having positive effect on risk assets as it at least addresses on of the market’s major concerns…Washington.
  • Obama/Pelosi “lame duck strategy” – WSJ oped – party leaders are planning to embark on a major and ambitious lame-duck session before breaking for recess a week earlier than normal on Jul 30. Card check, cap-and-trade, and “so much more”, could be on the table. WSJ
  • China outperformed the region on back of (a) China was not named a manipulator of FX in the US Treasury’s report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies last night, (b) China’s Q2 Business Climate Index continued its sequential improvement reaching 135.9, up from Q1’s 132.9 and Q209’s 115.9, (c) reports that technical indicators signal the Chinese stock market may be at a bottom, and (d) speculation (per Bloomberg) that the gov’t will wind back steps to curb property prices.
  • Treasury publishes the delayed semi-annual report to Congress on international FX trends; the report doesn’t name anyone as a currency manipulator; the report does say that the yuan is undervalued –

    Remember the Chinese revaluation? Up just under 1% in the 3 weeks since the announcement. The July 2005 through July 2008 revaluation saw a 21.52% increase.

market cap Apple Microsoft GE Exxon Jul 2010

  • World’s oldest person - Authorities in the former Soviet republic of Georgia claim that a woman from a remote mountain village has turned 130, making her the oldest person in the world. The Guardian

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