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Morning Notes For November 3rd 2010 at Trader’s Narrative




Morning Notes For November 3rd 2010


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The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

ADP Employment Change: Survey 20K Actual 43 Prior -39 Revised 2
nonfarm payroll Nov 2010

  • Elections - the results from Tues night were nearly right inline with consensus expectations. The GOP captured 60 net House seats and the majority. In the Senate, Republicans picked up 6 net seats and fell short of capturing the majority. – JPM
  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill said the Fed’s likely measures to boost the U.S. economy will spur further weakness in the dollar and gains for global equities. – Bloomberg
  • FOMC Rate Decision today – Confusing messages from Fed’s many voices; whatever the Fed announces today, there is a risk that it will be misunderstood. Financial Times (FT)

Drew Matus John Silvia faceoff Nov 2010

  • Martin Wolf in FT – tells China to embrace deficit targets – “Tim Geithner has offered an imaginative alternative to endless friction over exchange rates. China’s president should seize the escape the US has offered him” – Financial Times (FT)
  • Dubai World - Moody’s Changes Outlook On Dp World To Positive And Affirms Its Ba1 Rating
  • “Doubts Cloud Gold’s Bright Future” financial investors overwhelming normal supply/demand dynamics. Mining companies have largely unwound their hedge books, so they are no longer a large buyer. Mining companies are stepping up their activity, increasing supply. “Gold’s trajectory almost completely at the mercy” of financial investors at this point. – WSJ

Inflation Adjusted Price of Gold since 1970
gold inflation adjusted Nov 2010

  • US home ownership rate at ~66.9% in Q3; the ownership rate is at a 10yr low. NY Post

Homeownership Rate since 1965
home ownership rates Nov 2010

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