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Morning Notes For October 29th 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For October 29th 2010

The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

Q3 GDP Quarter over Quarter (Annualized): Survey 2.0% Actual 2% Prior 1.7%
real GDP forecast actual Oct 2010
This is the last big piece of data the Fed will have prior to their decision on November 3rd, 2010.

  • Roubini in the Financial Times: “A presidency heading for a fiscal train wreck” “The bond vigilantes are asleep, while borrowing rates remain unusually low… The risk, however, is that something on the fiscal side will snap, and the bond vigilantes will wake up. The trigger could be a debt rollover crisis in a major US state government, or perhaps even the realization that congressional gridlock means bipartisan solutions to our medium-term fiscal crisis is mission impossible.” - FT
  • Fed message becoming confused by break-down of consensus on policy; Fed officials say labels like ‘hawk’ or ‘dove’ not helpful as it doesn’t capture the nuances in the views of specific people - FT
  • Three out of four tests on cement Halliburton used in the Macondo oil well showed that the mixture would be unstable, and BP had the resutls fo one of those three tests before the well exploded in teh Gulf of Mexico in April, the presidential oil commission said Thursday. - Washington Post

Daily Chart of Halliburton
halliburton minicrash Oct 2010

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