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Morning Notes For October 5th 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For October 5th 2010

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The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

  • US lawmakers have put China’s currency policy high up on America’s political agenda. RGE Chairman Nouriel Roubini believes it ought to be even higher on China’s economic agenda. Roubini says China needs to revalue its currency, the yuan, not because failure to do so hurts the U.S. Rather, keeping the yuan artificially low will lead China’s own economy to hit a dangerous “growth wall” in the next two to three years, he said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Capital Markets Symposium in Kuala Lumpur last week. – Roubini Global Economics
  • Treasuries – Goldman, one of the biggest bulls on Treasuries, has turned more cautious; the firm thinks 10 year yields have seen their lows in the 2.45-2.5% range and that equities offer the better return currently. Goldman thinks Treasuries are already pricing in a sizeable round of quantitative easing coming up in Nov. WSJ

US Generic government ten year yield
US 10 year bond Oct 2010

  • George Soros – “I believe there is a strong case for further stimulus. Admittedly, consumption cannot be sustained indefinitely by running up the national debt. The imbalance between consumption and investment must be corrected. But to cut government spending at a time of large-scale unemployment would be to ignore the lessons of history” – FT
  • Major US airlines have said they haven’t been affected by the US Dept alert warning Americans of the potential for attacks by al-Qaeda and other groups. Reuters
  • Google announced deals with content providers for Google TV yesterday (e.g. Turner Broadcasting, NBCU, HBO, and the NBA), though the service won’t be selling ads “any time soon”. A source said that it would take ~1 year for Google TV to have ads. – NY Post

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