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Morning Notes For October 6th 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For October 6th 2010

The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

ADP Employment Change: Survey 20K Actual -39 Prior -10 Revised 10
nonfarm payroll long term chart of the day Oct 2010
Today’s ADP employment report does not augur well for Friday’s all-important Private Nonfarm Payrolls report.

  • Turkey: On the Way to Investment Grade? – Moody’s raised the outlook on Turkey’s rating to “positive” from “stable,” while keeping the rating at Ba2, two notches below investment grade. Recently, rating agencies have criticized Turkey for the postponement of its proposed fiscal rule law. Most analysts don’t see a rating upgrade likely before the country’s 2011 general elections. – Roubini Global Economics

Moody’s National Scale Ratings:
moodys scale of ratings

  • Taliban in high-level talks with Karzai government, sources say - Taliban representatives and the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai have begun secret, high-level talks over a negotiated end to the war, according to Afghan and Arab sources. – Washington Post
  • Buffett says its “quite clear stocks are cheaper than bonds” – CNBC

  • Credit for the recovery – “The economic expansion that has been going along in fits and starts since June 2009 was initially powered by government stimulus and business investment. But for this recovery to mature, broaden and persist, the greatest economic force known to mankind — the American consumer — has to get back in the game” – NYT
  • Housing market could falter without more aid says Felstein - A new housing program would need to focus on reducing the principal in mortgages, allowing refinancing of mortgages whose values exceed what the homes would sell for – Bloomberg

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