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Morning Notes For September 17th 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For September 17th 2010

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The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

  • Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.4% in mid-September from 9.3% in August and 8.9% at the end of July. This finding makes it far more unlikely that there will be a significant decline in the U.S. unemployment rate prior to the midterm elections. – Gallup – on the other hand, the unemployment rate may get a boost if the labor force shrinks (chart below)

hopeful finding job in next 4 weeks Sep 2010

  • Basel capital rules worse than the headlines indicate; while the headline numbers call for an increase of tier-1 from ~2% to ~7%, based on changes to the definition of capital, the real increase is more like from ~2% to 10%, a dramatic increase – FT
  • HPQ – co said to be close to naming Hurd successor; HPQ’s board leaning towards naming an internal candidate; decision could be announced in the coming week (Bloomberg)
  • Obama reaches out to Wall St, hoping to calm rising tensions w/senior industry execs; NY Post
  • Gold up $5 to $1,280; Copper up 1.5%, slightly off highs

Gold Spot $/oz – monthly chart back to 1975
gold price long term chart Sep 2010

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