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Morning Notes For September 21st 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For September 21st 2010

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The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

  • Technically, the U.S. economy has emerged from the recession; realistically, it still has miles to go. The National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, has determined that the U.S. economic recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The 18-month recession was the longest since the Great Depression, which lasted for 43 months, from August 1929 to March 1933. The formal declaration of the end of the recession will be cold comfort for the 14.9 million workers who remain unemployed and the 41.2 million Americans receiving food stamps, as well as for the ailing small business sector and a housing industry that appears to be back on the brink of a recession. – Bloomberg
  • Fresh off big primary wins in Delaware and Alaska, national “tea party” groups are redirecting the energy of the movement toward the November midterm elections, raising millions of dollars, expanding their advocacy into dozens of congressional races and building voter turnout operations nationwide. – Washington Post
  • The economy and jobs or unemployment far outrank any other issue as the top problem facing the country. Americans mentioning these issues tend to say the Republican Party would do a better job of handling the economy and the Democratic Party would do better on jobs. – Gallup

top issues facing country Gallup Sep 2010
It is a bit surprising to see these top two items take such a large lead.

  • David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates in Toronto, said the U.S. economy hasn’t recovered from a “single-scoop recession.”
  • Bond auctions out of Ireland, Spain, and Greece went without any major hiccups.
  • Willem Buiter, Chief Economist at Citigroup, said the yield on Irish 10-year bonds is ridiculous. “People should realise that Ireland isn’t Greece,” he said.

johnson resler face off Sep 2010

  • US households’ lack of confidence at a time when chief executive officers are relatively optimistic is no surprise, according to Pierre Lapointe, a global strategist at Brockhouse & Cooper Inc. – Bloomberg – is it time for households to turn more optimistic?

conference board consumer confidence Sep 2010

  • The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its 2010 industry outlook and is now projecting a profit of $8.9 billion (up from the $2.5 billion forecast in June). In its first look into 2011, the Association estimates that profitability will drop to $5.3 billion. – IATA – that is more than tripling of its profit estimate!
  • China no longer as attractive for global manufacturers - Top Form International recently decided not to move forward w/a new plant in China b/c of rising labor costs in the country. Bloomberg

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