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Morning Notes For September 23rd 2010 at Trader’s Narrative

Morning Notes For September 23rd 2010

The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome your feedback in the comments:

  • Initial Jobless Claims: Survey 450 Actual 465 Prior 450 Revised 453

initial jobless claims Sep 2010 updated2

  • Warren on Fair Play – Consumer protection adviser Elizabeth Warren said part of her job will be to create a set of rules not just for consumers, but for small lenders to compete against big banks. “We’ve got folks who want to play by a clean set of rules competing against folks who don’t. The job of regulation is not only to level the playing field between consumers and the lender, it’s often to level the playing field among the lenders.” – Bloomberg
  • Banks – negative WSJ article related to repurchase demands being made to banks; the Journal says that a group of investors in 2,300 mortgage securities worth some ~$500B are seeking to force banks to repurchase certain loans that are alleged to have been originated under false pretenses. WSJ
  • IPO markets not as strong – companies are raising only a fraction of the amount desired from equities IPOs; IPOs on the NYSE and Nasdaq have raised just $19.1B in 2010 while the original filings had sought ~$49B. Bloomberg
  • S&P 500 technical update – Krauss - While the medium term outlook stays bullish, we would not be surprised by some backing and filling. Sentiment is back at optimistic levels and momentum has an overbought sell signal. A Friday close below 1125.59 would mark a bearish reversal week. – JPM
  • Republicans to outline their November campaign “Pledge To America” at 10amET. House Republicans will announce a governing agenda today that would cut federal spending, extend expiring tax cuts and repeal the Democrats’ health-care law, according to a draft provided by a party aide. The program is to be released by party leaders at a hardware store in Sterling, Virginia, as Republicans make their case to voters to retake the House majority in the November 2 elections. – Bloomberg – this conjures memories of Gingrich’s 1994 “Contract with America”, in which ‘local’ congressional campaigns were run on a national level and Republicans gained a majority in both houses of Congress.
  • TARP expense forecast to be reduced further by White House - The Congressional Budget Office now pegs the actual cost at $66bn but the Treasury is expected to produce a lower estimate next week. Some think the TARP may actually turn a profit. FT
  • Forbes publishes its list of the 400 richest Americans; Bill Gates is #1 – Forbes
  • Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said a 20 percent rise in the yuan would cause severe job losses and trigger social instability, putting the nation on course for a clash with U.S. lawmakers demanding a stronger currency. “We cannot imagine how many Chinese factories will go bankrupt, how many Chinese workers will lose their jobs, and how many migrant workers will return to the countryside” should China acquiesce to demands for a 20 percent to 40 percent gain, Wen said in New York yesterday. “China would suffer major social upheaval.” – Bloomberg

Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) vs US Dollar:
Chinese yuan revaluation Sep 2010

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