Comments on: Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index Back To 2007 Level http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Mon, 22 Mar 2010 14:49:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Russ Abbott http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38572 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:37:15 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38572 Sorry for all these comments. I'm trying to get the system to change its record of my web address. Sorry for all these comments. I’m trying to get the system to change its record of my web address.

]]> by: Russ Abbott http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38571 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:34:54 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38571 P.S. My new web address is http://optionexperiments.wordpress.com, where I track my option trading. P.S. My new web address is http://optionexperiments.wordpress.com, where I track my option trading.

]]> by: Russ Abbott http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38570 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:31:31 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38570 A concern with figures like the first one above: the BPI was above 50% for about 9 months at the end of '06 and the start of '07. Yet no "signal" is indicated. Why not? In addition, one can't draw an arrow to a "peak" until some time after an index retreats from that peak. For example, there is a red arrow at the BPI peak in Oct '08. But at the time that peak occurred, the value was significantly below the BPI values just a few months prior. How did one know AT THAT TIME, that a reading of slightly over 50% would be a peak? One didn't know until perhaps a month later when one could look back and see that it was a peak. Similarly, how do we know now that the current reading is a peak. It may go higher in the the coming days/weeks. It may go lower. Only in hindsight does one know when a peak has occurred. I see this as a problem with most indicators that are read as giving signals at peaks. One simply doesn't know that a peak has occurred until significantly after the fact. A concern with figures like the first one above: the BPI was above 50% for about 9 months at the end of ‘06 and the start of ‘07. Yet no “signal” is indicated. Why not?

In addition, one can’t draw an arrow to a “peak” until some time after an index retreats from that peak. For example, there is a red arrow at the BPI peak in Oct ‘08. But at the time that peak occurred, the value was significantly below the BPI values just a few months prior. How did one know AT THAT TIME, that a reading of slightly over 50% would be a peak? One didn’t know until perhaps a month later when one could look back and see that it was a peak.

Similarly, how do we know now that the current reading is a peak. It may go higher in the the coming days/weeks. It may go lower. Only in hindsight does one know when a peak has occurred.

I see this as a problem with most indicators that are read as giving signals at peaks. One simply doesn’t know that a peak has occurred until significantly after the fact.

]]> by: George http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38568 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:04:20 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nasdaq-bullish-percent-index-back-to-2007-level-2492.html#comment-38568 What we have to ask ourselves is the reliability of this indicator in a severe bear market. While it did a good job of pinpointing a major inflection point in October of 07', it would be interesting to check the behavior of this indicator in the 2000-2003 bear. How did it behave as that bear market began to shift into a bull. Babak, good stuff as always, George What we have to ask ourselves is the reliability of this indicator in a severe bear market. While it did a good job of pinpointing a major inflection point in October of 07′, it would be interesting to check the behavior of this indicator in the 2000-2003 bear. How did it behave as that bear market began to shift into a bull. Babak, good stuff as always, George

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