Trader’s Narrative

As the rhetoric between Iran and the US becomes more heated and the drum beats of war grow louder, a theory that used to be only seen on the fringes of the internet is getting passed around more and more.

If you haven’t already seen it, the theory is that the real reason for the escalation of rhetoric and the possible planned attack by the US, is not Iran’s nuclear ambitions but its intention to start an oil bourse in which oil is priced in Euros instead of US dollars.

As the theory goes, if this happens it will weaken the US dollar and with it the foundation of the US economy; causing the downfall of the US from world superpower to a third-world country.

For now, lets put aside the laughable notion that a rogue nation who’s economy is steeped in corruption, opacity, and fraud would in any way be able to create an exchange that would attract enough participants to reach critical mass and compete one-on-one with the deep pool of liquidity in Chicago.

Lets pretend that Iran somehow pulls that rabbit out of their hat. The only other problem is that oil, Euros and the US dollar are all freely exchangeable in the global financial markets. If cloves of garlic were as freely exchangeable, oil could be priced in it and it would not matter one whit.

Anyone who can’t see that simple logic needs to take (or re-take) a basic economics course.