Comments on: Price Of Oil: Manipulation? Bubble? Supply/Demand? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Thu, 08 Jan 2009 22:07:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: tyneham http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-35333 Sat, 01 Nov 2008 20:40:34 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-35333 Crude oil is down more than 50% from its high of $147 a barrel... But oil-gas station prices are not down by 50%? Moreover, there were no corresponding increases or decreases in supply-demand in 2007-2008! Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way. It is market manipulation or it is simply an irrational speculative mania. The greedy oil price hikers, believers, analysts and cheerleaders were led by top ten global oil companies who continue to loot consumers, fuel inflation and the recessionary credit crunch. This is nothing less than ENRON-like collusion on a global scale. Read how, for example, power cuts make ENRON http://FixyaExperts.wordpress.com and http://FixyaExperts.blogspot.com Crude oil is down more than 50% from its high of $147 a barrel… But oil-gas station prices are not down by 50%? Moreover, there were no corresponding increases or decreases in supply-demand in 2007-2008! Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way. It is market manipulation or it is simply an irrational speculative mania.

The greedy oil price hikers, believers, analysts and cheerleaders were led by top ten global oil companies who continue to loot consumers, fuel inflation and the recessionary credit crunch. This is nothing less than ENRON-like collusion on a global scale.

Read how, for example, power cuts make ENRON http://FixyaExperts.wordpress.com and http://FixyaExperts.blogspot.com

]]> by: Rex Tillerson : Pricking The Crude Oil Price Bubble http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-34747 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 20:39:25 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-34747 [...] In June when crude oil closed above $138, I featured the chart below, showing that adjusted for inflation crude oil was not only exhibiting classic bubble behavior, but that it dwarfed previous oil spikes: [...] […] In June when crude oil closed above $138, I featured the chart below, showing that adjusted for inflation crude oil was not only exhibiting classic bubble behavior, but that it dwarfed previous oil spikes: […]

]]> by: NutritionFacts http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-34414 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 18:56:21 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-34414 You only find out the true value of oil or oil products to consumers when you there isn't enough to go round. Seems to me that consumers worldwide have been benefiting from a massive consumer surplus in the price of oil (as opposed to what they would be willing to pay for it if they had to) for as long as most people can remember. I mean, what do you think people would really be willing to pay for their gasoline, if they had to? People in Europe pay $9 or more with barely a murmur. Most would probably pay considerably more to avoid having to travel by public transport. The geography is different in the US - so average distances may be longer - but the infrastructure is poorer and the love of the automobile is greater. You only find out the true value of oil or oil products to consumers when you there isn’t enough to go round.
Seems to me that consumers worldwide have been benefiting from a massive consumer surplus in the price of oil (as opposed to what they would be willing to pay for it if they had to) for as long as most people can remember.
I mean, what do you think people would really be willing to pay for their gasoline, if they had to? People in Europe pay $9 or more with barely a murmur. Most would probably pay considerably more to avoid having to travel by public transport. The geography is different in the US - so average distances may be longer - but the infrastructure is poorer and the love of the automobile is greater.

]]> by: Stan http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33614 Sun, 15 Jun 2008 08:29:16 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33614 I wonder: Is there a true supply and demand issue for oil, or is it being manipulated for some desired outcome? One of the thoughts I have, has to do with causing demand to dry up in the developing countries see the impact on Vietnam as precursor to what will happen in India and China. If the price of oil can be pushed up to the level that the new economies can't sustain the high growth, it will crush the demand, and leave more of the supply for the consumers in the developed world? Oil price: 30-130 in seven years I wonder if the supply and demand curves are in sync, to justify the above price increase? Thanks. Stan I wonder:

Is there a true supply and demand issue for oil, or is it being manipulated for some desired outcome?

One of the thoughts I have, has to do with causing demand to dry up in the developing countries see the impact on Vietnam as precursor to what will happen in India and China.

If the price of oil can be pushed up to the level that the new economies can’t sustain the high growth, it will crush the demand, and leave more of the supply for the consumers in the developed world?

Oil price: 30-130 in seven years

I wonder if the supply and demand curves are in sync, to justify the above price increase?

Thanks.
Stan

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33539 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 01:53:09 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33539 Tyro, you're right, not all peak oil believers are that crazy. Just like not everyone who holds gold is a nut job, maybe I've been unlucky but the crazies are the only ones I've been exposed to mostly. Thanks for your cogent feedback :-) Tyro, you’re right, not all peak oil believers are that crazy. Just like not everyone who holds gold is a nut job, maybe I’ve been unlucky but the crazies are the only ones I’ve been exposed to mostly. Thanks for your cogent feedback :-)

]]> by: 92nd Edition of the Festival of Stocks - Fat Pitch Financials http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33526 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 13:37:30 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33526 [...] Babak presents Price Of Oil: Manipulation? Bubble? Supply/Demand? posted at Trader’s Narrative, saying, “Taking a look at the long term chart of crude oil, adjusted for inflation in an attempt to explain the current price behavior.” [...] […] Babak presents Price Of Oil: Manipulation? Bubble? Supply/Demand? posted at Trader’s Narrative, saying, “Taking a look at the long term chart of crude oil, adjusted for inflation in an attempt to explain the current price behavior.” […]

]]> by: Johan http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33523 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 08:43:15 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33523 "if you were to go back in time, would you try to corner the whale oil market? or invest in Texas oil fields?" LOL! :) “if you were to go back in time, would you try to corner the whale oil market? or invest in Texas oil fields?”

LOL! :)

]]> by: Tyro http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33513 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 23:55:25 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33513 Yes, we've had a strong run-up but that's partly because you're starting you're counting after a hard sell-off. Even still, after such a strong run, it's reasonable to expect a pause or even retrace so I agree, this is probably a bubble, but only in the short-intermediate term. Over the longer term, the finite &#38; declining supply combined with a growing demand is going to be brutal to the shorts. <i>This is what I don’t understand, if you are a dyed in the wool “peak oil” believer, why invest in a dying industry? why not invest in those companies which will rise up out of the ashes and propel us forward? or do the “peak oilers” believe we are going to regress technologically?</i> I have a funny feeling that when you talk about "peak oil believer", you aren't talking about people that believe in Peak Oil, but rather the people that believe in some apocalyptic Mad Max global wasteland future. If so, I wish you would find some more suitable term. Peak Oil is a fact, but how the world will react and adapt is still very much up in the air. Why do you think peak oil believers only invest in oil and not other technologies? I sometimes feel like your mockery of those you disagree with is blinding you. For myself, I am actively trading oil &#38; gas, but also solar and other sectors. I'm not a longer term investor so I couldn't speak for them. Perhaps Soros and Rogers are playing different time frames, or perhaps one is simply wrong. It's happened before. As for regressing technologically, unless we start taking some strong actions and take them soon, societal and technological impacts will be inevitable. Nuclear power stations take years to build and since Uranium and Plutonium are fixed, non-renewable resources, we will run out of them too (we have only about 12 years supply if nuclear power replaces oil). Every possible alternative takes time and money and energy to build, and we haven't even started. Best case scenario, we have a tough 5 years while alternative energy supplies come on line, but until we start building, those tough 5 years won't start. So yes, even if we flip a switch and start building replacements for oil, there will be a period where we will not be able to meet a growing demand for energy. Without energy growth, our economies cannot grow and may start to shrink. Without economic growth, many people will be out of work and some parts of the world will face increased starvation. This isn't controversial. The question is how severe the economic impact will be and what we can/will do to mitigate it. <i>Or consider it another way, if you were to go back in time, would you try to corner the whale oil market? or invest in Texas oil fields? </i> Either of those would have made you fantastically wealthy. If you knew when to move on to other areas. With your mockery of Peak Oil, I wonder what it will take for you to spot the danger and to move on. If you deny oil is peaking, wouldn't that you an investor in the Texas oil fields left holding the bag when the oil slows? It also displays a mistaken understanding of our world. We always had replacements for whale oil and <i>Texas</i> oil fields, but it took time and a lot of work to transition. When US oil peaked, it wasn't a simple transition. You needed a large infrastructure to support pumping, transporting and refining oil from overseas markets. As a Canadian, you should know that the largest supplier of oil to the US isn't Arabia but Canada. The pipelines that supply the US didn't appear overnight, and that was when we were dealing with a substance and technology that was well understood. Anyway, interesting article. You're probably right that speculation and even collusion are helping to drive oil prices up. They're ripples on the wave. Yes, we’ve had a strong run-up but that’s partly because you’re starting you’re counting after a hard sell-off. Even still, after such a strong run, it’s reasonable to expect a pause or even retrace so I agree, this is probably a bubble, but only in the short-intermediate term. Over the longer term, the finite & declining supply combined with a growing demand is going to be brutal to the shorts.

This is what I don’t understand, if you are a dyed in the wool “peak oil” believer, why invest in a dying industry? why not invest in those companies which will rise up out of the ashes and propel us forward? or do the “peak oilers” believe we are going to regress technologically?

I have a funny feeling that when you talk about “peak oil believer”, you aren’t talking about people that believe in Peak Oil, but rather the people that believe in some apocalyptic Mad Max global wasteland future. If so, I wish you would find some more suitable term. Peak Oil is a fact, but how the world will react and adapt is still very much up in the air.

Why do you think peak oil believers only invest in oil and not other technologies? I sometimes feel like your mockery of those you disagree with is blinding you.

For myself, I am actively trading oil & gas, but also solar and other sectors. I’m not a longer term investor so I couldn’t speak for them. Perhaps Soros and Rogers are playing different time frames, or perhaps one is simply wrong. It’s happened before.

As for regressing technologically, unless we start taking some strong actions and take them soon, societal and technological impacts will be inevitable. Nuclear power stations take years to build and since Uranium and Plutonium are fixed, non-renewable resources, we will run out of them too (we have only about 12 years supply if nuclear power replaces oil). Every possible alternative takes time and money and energy to build, and we haven’t even started. Best case scenario, we have a tough 5 years while alternative energy supplies come on line, but until we start building, those tough 5 years won’t start.

So yes, even if we flip a switch and start building replacements for oil, there will be a period where we will not be able to meet a growing demand for energy. Without energy growth, our economies cannot grow and may start to shrink. Without economic growth, many people will be out of work and some parts of the world will face increased starvation. This isn’t controversial.

The question is how severe the economic impact will be and what we can/will do to mitigate it.

Or consider it another way, if you were to go back in time, would you try to corner the whale oil market? or invest in Texas oil fields?

Either of those would have made you fantastically wealthy. If you knew when to move on to other areas. With your mockery of Peak Oil, I wonder what it will take for you to spot the danger and to move on. If you deny oil is peaking, wouldn’t that you an investor in the Texas oil fields left holding the bag when the oil slows?

It also displays a mistaken understanding of our world. We always had replacements for whale oil and Texas oil fields, but it took time and a lot of work to transition. When US oil peaked, it wasn’t a simple transition. You needed a large infrastructure to support pumping, transporting and refining oil from overseas markets. As a Canadian, you should know that the largest supplier of oil to the US isn’t Arabia but Canada. The pipelines that supply the US didn’t appear overnight, and that was when we were dealing with a substance and technology that was well understood.

Anyway, interesting article. You’re probably right that speculation and even collusion are helping to drive oil prices up. They’re ripples on the wave.

]]> by: bruce rappaport http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33512 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 23:40:26 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33512 As the dollar slid in value more were required to buy the same amount of house. Now that workers in China are getting paid more China is experiencing inflation which exports it to USA. I know it's more complicated then that but it's a significant part I think. As the dollar slid in value more were required to buy the same amount of house. Now that workers in China are getting paid more China is experiencing inflation which exports it to USA. I know it’s more complicated then that but it’s a significant part I think.

]]> by: Marc http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33504 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 17:53:58 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/price-of-oil-manipulation-bubble-supplydemand-1753.html#comment-33504 Why would a weak dollar cause plunging home prices? A weak dollar tends to cause inflation if anything. M Why would a weak dollar cause plunging home prices?

A weak dollar tends to cause inflation if anything.

M

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