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It is official. And about a year too late. But the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) have spoken:
The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007.
Business Cycle Dating Committee
In that post I showed a chart of the Google trends for “recession”. By the end of January 2008, the Google trend for “recession” was off the charts.
Then most recently, I mentioned that according to Dr.Copper we are in a recession. If you look closely at that chart, the annual rate of change did go negative in early 2007 (just barely). But enough to warrant a signal, just as previous ones.
Even LOLcats got in on the act and signaled a recession before the NBER economists.
Economics must be the only profession where you can make a living driving by looking at the rear view mirror. Too bad traders can’t make buy and sell decisions once the charts have been printed.
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