Comments on: Reviewing The Carnage On Wall Street http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:32:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34821 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:41:41 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34821 Bourning, that would be a tentative yes. I haven't heard anything definitive out of Lowry's but the breadth would give reason for a 90/90 up day. Bourning, that would be a tentative yes. I haven’t heard anything definitive out of Lowry’s but the breadth would give reason for a 90/90 up day.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34803 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 03:37:02 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34803 Bill, you're definitely correct in that no two bottoms provide the same technical or sentiment picture. The reason why I continue to be cautious and believe that the worst isn't over is that we haven't really seen a cathartic day when selling is exhausted. Sure, it has been ugly, but as I mentioned, things can always get uglier. Plus, by itself terrible breadth isn't a reliable indicator of an inflection. That requires a rush by the bulls even more daring than what we are seeing from the bears. Sentiment wise things are not as crazy as the headlines would indicate, for example, the VIX or the ISEE call put ratio or the CBOE put/call ratio. Everything is crowded in the CDS market and everyone is keying off those rates, plus LIBOR, the <a href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/dear-bernanke-warm-up-the-helicopters-1856.html" rel="nofollow">3 month T-bill rate</a> and what the Fed might do. Jinx, I think we are already well into a <href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/we-are-in-a-recession-841.html">recession</a>. Remember that they are flagged in hindsight. Bill, you’re definitely correct in that no two bottoms provide the same technical or sentiment picture. The reason why I continue to be cautious and believe that the worst isn’t over is that we haven’t really seen a cathartic day when selling is exhausted. Sure, it has been ugly, but as I mentioned, things can always get uglier. Plus, by itself terrible breadth isn’t a reliable indicator of an inflection. That requires a rush by the bulls even more daring than what we are seeing from the bears.

Sentiment wise things are not as crazy as the headlines would indicate, for example, the VIX or the ISEE call put ratio or the CBOE put/call ratio. Everything is crowded in the CDS market and everyone is keying off those rates, plus LIBOR, the 3 month T-bill rate and what the Fed might do.

Jinx, I think we are already well into a recession. Remember that they are flagged in hindsight.

]]> by: Jinx http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34798 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:46:50 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34798 Intrade's prediction of a recession is still low c.20% but the thoughts of recession are scary, thankfully I have a lot less to lose than some people Intrade’s prediction of a recession is still low c.20% but the thoughts of recession are scary, thankfully I have a lot less to lose than some people

]]> by: Bill K http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34796 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 11:54:15 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/reviewing-the-carnage-on-wall-street-1852.html#comment-34796 Babak, after a couple of months on the forecasting sidelines welcome back to the game! Even though you disagree with me on every point it is great to hear a different opinion with well thought out reasons. None of my points have merit alone, but in the overall context they give overwhelming evidence of extreme panic. That is why I point to many things and not just one. You will rarely find a bottom in which every single indicator hits the extreme highs of the past 2 years. I can't believe we got so much panic on just a retest where the DOW didn't even go to a new low. I am very confident in my bottom call. We will get a nice bounce in my opinion. Then the questions becomes will this remain a long term bottom or just a short term bottom. There is so much panic out there it is hard to separate from that and stay a contrarian right now. But in this case the data is very clear. It will be interesting to see what happens next. Bill K Babak, after a couple of months on the forecasting sidelines welcome back to the game! Even though you disagree with me on every point it is great to hear a different opinion with well thought out reasons. None of my points have merit alone, but in the overall context they give overwhelming evidence of extreme panic. That is why I point to many things and not just one. You will rarely find a bottom in which every single indicator hits the extreme highs of the past 2 years. I can’t believe we got so much panic on just a retest where the DOW didn’t even go to a new low. I am very confident in my bottom call. We will get a nice bounce in my opinion. Then the questions becomes will this remain a long term bottom or just a short term bottom.

There is so much panic out there it is hard to separate from that and stay a contrarian right now. But in this case the data is very clear. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Bill K

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