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Secular Trend & Cyclical Outlook For Stocks, Bonds, & Commodities at Trader’s Narrative

The slideshow below is from the San Francisco Technical Securities Analysts Association presentation earlier this month by Martin Pring. Most of the charts are familiar and self-explanatory so the outlook that Pring offers is clear.

It jumped out at me pretty fast even as I skimmed the charts because it is the same that I’ve been drumming on for a while. We are not there yet (page 12). The long term outlook is clearly challenging as the secular bear market has not reached its exhaustion point. The cyclical outlook is another thing.

In any case, have a look and let me know what you think. The slides are extensive as they cover equities, bonds, commodities as well as the credit markets. (To move back and forth move the mouse to the left/right edge of the screen and click. You can also see it in fullscreen.)

Source: Pring Turner Capital

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5 Responses to “Secular Trend & Cyclical Outlook For Stocks, Bonds, & Commodities”  

  1. 1 SNPaddict

    Looks like Cramer is calling the bottom.

  2. 2 Felippebf

    Many thanks for the presentation.
    To whom is familiar with the Pring’s book “The all season investor“, this presentation is a nice update where we are on the business cycle.

    The present leverage is so crazy (read excess liquidity if you like), that this rallye came even before some leading indicadors as housing starts, for instance. Somehow, things might be following a cycle anyway and stage 5 might be underway.

    Take care.

  3. 3 Mike C

    How do I download this presentation?

  4. 4 Dalmas

    To Mike C.
    Go to Free Stuff and browse down the list.

  5. 5 Babak

    Michael, the chyron on the screencap you put up says “There is a bear calling the shots now, so consider holding off on buying until the fog clears.” And on his column on Friday the heading is “This Dip Cannot Be Bought”

    Nothing to like. Nothing at all. Just nothing. We can’t have a president who is declaring war on Wall Street and spoiling for a fight, as he says so himself, and think that stocks can rally. We can’t have the premier investment house of our time in free fall and think it doesn’t matter. We can’t have the Federal Reserve chairman under attack after all he has done and think that things are fine. We can’t have Tim Geithner’s job in doubt and believe that all is well.

    … which for me at least, is a heck of a vote of confidence since Cramer is usually wrong. But I’d prefer if he were frothing at the mouth a bit more. Maybe if we have back to back declines into Wednesday next week?

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