Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of August 14th, 2009 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Mon, 22 Mar 2010 12:35:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Chris Maye http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53932 Sun, 16 Aug 2009 10:29:47 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53932 Everywhere I read, all I see are negative articles on the market looking for a pullback. The AAII may be bulilish, but are they bullish but looking for a pullback to get in? SPX NASDAQ DOW NYSE All closed within 1% of last week's close, tells me that the market really doesn't want to "pullback" 10%. It is more like wanting to consolidate and push higher...(much like we saw June into early July) Everywhere I read, all I see are negative articles on the market looking for a pullback. The AAII may be bulilish, but are they bullish but looking for a pullback to get in?

SPX
NASDAQ
DOW
NYSE

All closed within 1% of last week’s close, tells me that the market really doesn’t want to “pullback” 10%. It is more like wanting to consolidate and push higher…(much like we saw June into early July)

]]> by: van http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53910 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 13:17:05 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53910 Faber is looking for a <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1212550433&play=1">correction</a> Faber is looking for a correction

]]> by: Trader Kitteh http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53892 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 03:04:28 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53892 While I am not an expert on the bullish % data, the one potential issue that stands out in the above graph with 50% marking the tops is that it is in the context of an overall bear market downtrend. That part is very clear as it is all in the past to see. However, the current rally is obviously of a much larger scale to those shown - and it just might be that we are in a new bull market on a higher timeframe. Therefore, I think it would be worthwhile to look back at the figures during, say 2003, to see what the figures look like then. Otherwise it might be comparing apple to oranges if we only look at the recent past when the context seem different. On the VIX futures I have a different read. I think that demand for protection is very high, as indicated by the term structure and the level it is trading at above realized, which means the popular side of the trade is long vol and gamma. IMO, the surprise would be a collapse into the teens. While I am not an expert on the bullish % data, the one potential issue that stands out in the above graph with 50% marking the tops is that it is in the context of an overall bear market downtrend. That part is very clear as it is all in the past to see. However, the current rally is obviously of a much larger scale to those shown - and it just might be that we are in a new bull market on a higher timeframe. Therefore, I think it would be worthwhile to look back at the figures during, say 2003, to see what the figures look like then. Otherwise it might be comparing apple to oranges if we only look at the recent past when the context seem different.

On the VIX futures I have a different read. I think that demand for protection is very high, as indicated by the term structure and the level it is trading at above realized, which means the popular side of the trade is long vol and gamma. IMO, the surprise would be a collapse into the teens.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53881 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 01:25:46 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53881 Dave, thanks - fixed it. I usually bring up specifics if there is something interesting or noteworthy otherwise the sentiment overview would be 40 feet! Herb, not the VIX but the posturing via VIX futures. Dave, thanks - fixed it. I usually bring up specifics if there is something interesting or noteworthy otherwise the sentiment overview would be 40 feet!

Herb, not the VIX but the posturing via VIX futures.

]]> by: Herb Earversmells http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53877 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 00:30:25 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53877 wondering how you make the leap that smart money is causing the vix configuration that you seem to think is bearish. The vix has been wrong ont he market all year as an indicator, so why is it now suddenly, a smart indicator? wondering how you make the leap that smart money is causing the vix configuration that you seem to think is bearish. The vix has been wrong ont he market all year as an indicator, so why is it now suddenly, a smart indicator?

]]> by: Rob Weigand http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53873 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 00:00:17 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53873 One lesson we learned from the 2003-2007 phony-baloney bull market (I call it this because all real returns since 1996 were erased by the March 2009 lows) is that a fake bull run can start from high P/E ratios and last for years before investors pay the piper. In March 2003 the long-term P/E ratio (Shiller's P/E10) was over 30. Over the next four years, earnings growth outpaced stock returns thanks to leverage, leverage everywhere, and by the time of the market peak in 2007, P/E ratios were back in line with their historical averages -- and financial armageddon ensued. There's nothing to say that traders can't juice up stock valuations in the same way, making things very uncomfortable for fund managers to sit on the sidelines for months and years. We were better off when everything we needed to know about the stock market could be summarized in 30 minutes of Wall St. Week With Louis Rukeyser. Now, with CNBC and Bloomberg 24/7, non-news becomes news and traders just churn the living bee-jeezus out of asset values morning, noon and night until valuations are so removed from fundamentals that they are just pulp and everyone's trading on news about news. One lesson we learned from the 2003-2007 phony-baloney bull market (I call it this because all real returns since 1996 were erased by the March 2009 lows) is that a fake bull run can start from high P/E ratios and last for years before investors pay the piper. In March 2003 the long-term P/E ratio (Shiller’s P/E10) was over 30. Over the next four years, earnings growth outpaced stock returns thanks to leverage, leverage everywhere, and by the time of the market peak in 2007, P/E ratios were back in line with their historical averages — and financial armageddon ensued. There’s nothing to say that traders can’t juice up stock valuations in the same way, making things very uncomfortable for fund managers to sit on the sidelines for months and years. We were better off when everything we needed to know about the stock market could be summarized in 30 minutes of Wall St. Week With Louis Rukeyser. Now, with CNBC and Bloomberg 24/7, non-news becomes news and traders just churn the living bee-jeezus out of asset values morning, noon and night until valuations are so removed from fundamentals that they are just pulp and everyone’s trading on news about news.

]]> by: bob j http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53833 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 16:17:32 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53833 Thanks for another usefull and timely report on sentiment data. I read it every week. Some thoughts on interpretating sentiment data; 1. Sentiment increases have still lagged the run up in stocks; hence sentiment is not overly optimistic yet. Liz Ann Sonders 2. Sentiment peaks occur in retrospect; hence, sell signals from sentiment data occur after sentiment is very high and reversals downward from the highs. Ned Davis 3.Sentimend data for high optimitism is different for bull and bear markets and diferrent when monetary conditions are tight or easy. Ned Davis Thanks for another usefull and timely report on sentiment data. I read it every week.

Some thoughts on interpretating sentiment data;

1. Sentiment increases have still lagged the run up in stocks; hence sentiment is not overly optimistic yet. Liz Ann Sonders
2. Sentiment peaks occur in retrospect; hence, sell signals from sentiment data occur after sentiment is very high and reversals downward from the highs. Ned Davis
3.Sentimend data for high optimitism is different for bull and bear markets and diferrent
when monetary conditions are tight or easy. Ned Davis

]]> by: Dave http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53826 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:08:57 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-august-14th-2009-2843.html#comment-53826 "By July 2009 it had fallen to 1200..." Assume that you mean July 2008 ? Last sentiment posting you cited Market Vane, Ned Davis Research &#38; Jake Bernstein. Do you have those figures this week ? Thank you “By July 2009 it had fallen to 1200…” Assume that you mean July 2008 ?

Last sentiment posting you cited Market Vane, Ned Davis Research & Jake Bernstein. Do you have those figures this week ?

Thank you

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