Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of December 21st, 2007 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:34:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Sentiment Overview: Week Of January 4th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-26278 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 08:15:06 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-26278 [...] (Mutual) Fund Flows Data from TrimTabs corroborates the shocking hemorrhage in the mutual fund industry I wrote about before. According to them, 2007 saw probably the largest outflow in history. [...] […] (Mutual) Fund Flows Data from TrimTabs corroborates the shocking hemorrhage in the mutual fund industry I wrote about before. According to them, 2007 saw probably the largest outflow in history. […]

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-25122 Mon, 24 Dec 2007 16:40:27 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-25122 scood, thanks for the explanation, now I understand better what you meant. SS, yeah, you're right but then again, it has never been close to this low... ever. So does that mean anything? pat, thanks for the link. Since I'll see if I can work it in the blog so more can see it. scood, thanks for the explanation, now I understand better what you meant.

SS, yeah, you’re right but then again, it has never been close to this low… ever. So does that mean anything?

pat, thanks for the link. Since I’ll see if I can work it in the blog so more can see it.

]]> by: pat http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-25029 Mon, 24 Dec 2007 06:14:07 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-25029 There is just something so bullish about this (from a contrarian viewpoint). Case in point: <a href="http://i12.tinypic.com/6qaqm2p.jpg">prior massive redemptions and outcome</a> Maybe those gargantuan commercial COT positions really are signaling something big after all? There is just something so bullish about this (from a contrarian viewpoint).
Case in point: prior massive redemptions and outcome

Maybe those gargantuan commercial COT positions really are signaling something big after all?

]]> by: SS http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-25012 Mon, 24 Dec 2007 01:54:19 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-25012 Gee, the State Street Investor Confidence Index appears to be utterly useless on a historical basis to gauge excessive pessimism. While it is interesting to note that this measure is more bearish than ever, the numbers previously offered don't appear to have any predictive value whatsoever. Gee, the State Street Investor Confidence Index appears to be utterly useless on a historical basis to gauge excessive pessimism. While it is interesting to note that this measure is more bearish than ever, the numbers previously offered don’t appear to have any predictive value whatsoever.

]]> by: scood http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24996 Sun, 23 Dec 2007 15:59:21 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24996 My, very scientific " BETTER--- better get a bucket" indicator [you remember Monty Pythons famously disgusting Mr Creasote] has been extremely accurate.Worked in 98 for oil drillers, 99-00for gold miners, 02-03 for steel cos, refiners, some tech, ag, metals, just about you name it. I think it worked great in 82 but cant remember-- in 87 I actually wound up in the same condition as Mr Creasote so I was inoperable. How it works is, when the market has me in the same state as mr Creasote before he explodes, I either; if I can still walk, jump out the !st floor window into the scrubbery to relieve the pressure [this filters out events not dire enuf to be buying opps] OR if Im totally incapacitated by fear I can still probably move my hand to buy stocks [these are the moments of maxx opportunity]. What I cant figure tho is how I could be feeling so bad right now when the major indexs are only a few % down from their hi-s and up for the yr, plus several sectors @ all time hi-s and many fine blu chips in many sectors also @ all time hi-s. Why does it feel like weve been in a 2 yr bear mkt? GO FIGURE. My guess is that the media is in a total paroxysm[sic] of totally irrational lemmingesk fear and has all the rest of us bozos in the same frame. When even the centers of clear, rational, "good" data driven thought [ like yourself &#38; Hulbert] start to worry, well that does it, its unanimous. It was a very small window tho you only wavered a day or so. Of course the verdicts not totally in yet, we'll see. Dont woorry about your minor defect of NOT FREAKING OUT who knows you might live higher than the 2nd floor-- could be hazardous. My, very scientific ” BETTER— better get a bucket” indicator [you remember Monty Pythons famously disgusting Mr Creasote] has been extremely accurate.Worked in 98 for oil drillers, 99-00for gold miners, 02-03 for steel cos, refiners, some tech, ag, metals, just about you name it. I think it worked great in 82 but cant remember– in 87 I actually wound up in the same condition as Mr Creasote so I was inoperable.
How it works is, when the market has me in the same state as mr Creasote before he explodes, I either; if I can still walk, jump out the !st floor window into the scrubbery to relieve the pressure [this filters out events not dire enuf to be buying opps] OR if Im totally incapacitated by fear I can still probably move my hand to buy stocks [these are the moments of maxx opportunity].
What I cant figure tho is how I could be feeling so bad right now when the major indexs are only a few % down from their hi-s and up for the yr, plus several sectors @ all time hi-s and many fine blu chips in many sectors also @ all time hi-s. Why does it feel like weve been in a 2 yr bear mkt? GO FIGURE. My guess is that the media is in a total paroxysm[sic] of totally irrational lemmingesk fear and has all the rest of us bozos in the same frame. When even the centers of clear, rational, “good” data driven thought [ like yourself & Hulbert] start to worry, well that does it, its unanimous. It was a very small window tho you only wavered a day or so.
Of course the verdicts not totally in yet, we’ll see. Dont woorry about your minor defect of NOT FREAKING OUT who knows you might live higher than the 2nd floor– could be hazardous.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24900 Sat, 22 Dec 2007 16:47:39 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24900 Jim, could be, could be. But that is a very apocalyptic way of looking at it, isn't it? You mean to say they're selling their retirement funds to finance one last Christmas? scood, while it feels good to be lumped in with Hulbert, I can't say I miss the irony of becoming a contrary indicator myself when I write so much about them (!) :-) All I do is report on what I see, and what the various indicators are saying. I <STRIKE>don't</STRIKE> rarely get emotional and go with my "gut". Jim, could be, could be. But that is a very apocalyptic way of looking at it, isn’t it? You mean to say they’re selling their retirement funds to finance one last Christmas?

scood, while it feels good to be lumped in with Hulbert, I can’t say I miss the irony of becoming a contrary indicator myself when I write so much about them (!) :-)

All I do is report on what I see, and what the various indicators are saying. I don’t rarely get emotional and go with my “gut”.

]]> by: scood http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24851 Sat, 22 Dec 2007 01:34:53 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24851 whooosh-- I guess a little of that 6.5-7.5 trillion got put back to work today.Babak you got me worried when you started wavering last week, but it set off my 'bucket indicator' as in " better get a bucket, I'm gonna throw up". I've been ready to blow lunch or jump out the first floor window into the shrubbery for a few weeks now, but last week w/you &#38; hulbert both harping on sentiment going up while the market cascaded down i was reallyready to puke. But I figured @ that point I'd throw you both in the contrary indicator pile w/the rest of em and bought some more, telling myself all the while I was a moron and would soon be broke and out of work. Feeling better tonite but i sure hope Mr Hi-Lo is right on, so i dont need another case of lomotil next week. Kudos again great stuff- I was probably a little early saying that about your last bottom call, as it still is, {early that is] but you look pretty solid again after today. Still, I dont think you'll be right on the major averages, financials, trans, ect. rising, on the one hand and oil and gold falling on the other. They're all laid together in a great big pile--- maybe that was a sly move tho, at least you'll be right on one or the other. Have a joyful holiday and many thanks. whooosh– I guess a little of that 6.5-7.5 trillion got put back to work today.Babak you got me worried when you started wavering last week, but it set off my ‘bucket indicator’ as in ” better get a bucket, I’m gonna throw up”. I’ve been ready to blow lunch or jump out the first floor window into the shrubbery for a few weeks now, but last week w/you & hulbert both harping on sentiment going up while the market cascaded down i was reallyready to puke. But I figured @ that point I’d throw you both in the contrary indicator pile w/the rest of em and bought some more, telling myself all the while I was a moron and would soon be broke and out of work. Feeling better tonite but i sure hope Mr Hi-Lo is right on, so i dont need another case of lomotil next week.
Kudos again great stuff- I was probably a little early saying that about your last bottom call, as it still is, {early that is] but you look pretty solid again after today. Still, I dont think you’ll be right on the major averages, financials, trans, ect. rising, on the one hand and oil and gold falling on the other. They’re all laid together in a great big pile— maybe that was a sly move tho, at least you’ll be right on one or the other.
Have a joyful holiday and many thanks.

]]> by: Jim http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24850 Sat, 22 Dec 2007 01:32:25 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-december-21st-2007-189.html#comment-24850 One possible explanation for the large equity mutual fund outflows is that US consumers are selling assets to finance consumption, now that the home equity loan spigot is largely turned off.. One possible explanation for the large equity mutual fund outflows is that US consumers are selling assets to finance consumption, now that the home equity loan spigot is largely turned off..

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