Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of February 29th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Thu, 21 Aug 2008 01:32:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Who Is ‘Margin’ And Why Does He Keep Calling Me? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32216 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 03:51:57 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32216 [...] 10/10 Breadth I’ve been watching the percentage of stocks above their 10 day moving average to see if it can breach 10%. Although this is a short term indicator, it has had a great track record of finding major inflection points. You can read about Lowry’s in depth research on this indicator here. [...] […] 10/10 Breadth I’ve been watching the percentage of stocks above their 10 day moving average to see if it can breach 10%. Although this is a short term indicator, it has had a great track record of finding major inflection points. You can read about Lowry’s in depth research on this indicator here. […]

]]> by: CBOE Put Call Options Ratio Spikes To Four Year High http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32184 Fri, 07 Mar 2008 06:45:10 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32184 [...] Out of Breadth I pointed out a few intriguing charts in last week’s sentiment overview. We haven’t gotten the breadth reading I was expecting: the percentage of S &P 500 stocks above their 10 day moving average bounced up from 13% instead of going below 10%. [...] […] Out of Breadth I pointed out a few intriguing charts in last week’s sentiment overview. We haven’t gotten the breadth reading I was expecting: the percentage of S &P 500 stocks above their 10 day moving average bounced up from 13% instead of going below 10%. […]

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32182 Fri, 07 Mar 2008 05:58:52 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32182 D, short term the market's headed for (more) trouble, medium to long term I'm still bullish. The number of declines would suggest we are about to find a floor (see graph). D,
short term the market’s headed for (more) trouble, medium to long term I’m still bullish. The number of declines would suggest we are about to find a floor (see graph).

]]> by: Bill K http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32131 Mon, 03 Mar 2008 01:28:50 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32131 Black crow, your logic makes perfect sense. But when any pattern or market theory gets too well know it doesn't work as well. I think panic bottom spotting has become much more widely used of late, then it was when I first started using it 10 years ago. Nearly everyone talks about VIX now and considers at least some other contrary indicators, which never used to be the case. Add to that the attempted market saving moves by the Fed when we were trying to put in panic lows. I really think we would have had a much more solid and probably lower bottom already in if the Fed didn't try to give the market a big injection before the biggest down open day in years. Also, the government helping out homeowners in trouble is just delaying the inevitable pain that has to occur to clear out the housing market. The housing market has many ties to the stock market and the entire economy. These "save everyone" moves are not how markets have to work. They have to put in their own bottoms on their own time table and many people have to suffer to get the bottom in. The expansive knowledge of fear bottoms and the intervention of the fed have brought me pause regarding the January bottom. So the current buyers are the disillusioned ones that think the fed lowering rates is going to immediately turn everything around and fix everything, which usually is not the case. Also on board are the bottom picking crowd (which I was a member of until Wednesday of last week) that feel the fairly convincing bottom was real. Contrary bottom picking will still work, but we might need to see higher panic readings then we have seen to successfully put a long range bottom in. Black crow, your logic makes perfect sense. But when any pattern or market theory gets too well know it doesn’t work as well. I think panic bottom spotting has become much more widely used of late, then it was when I first started using it 10 years ago. Nearly everyone talks about VIX now and considers at least some other contrary indicators, which never used to be the case. Add to that the attempted market saving moves by the Fed when we were trying to put in panic lows. I really think we would have had a much more solid and probably lower bottom already in if the Fed didn’t try to give the market a big injection before the biggest down open day in years. Also, the government helping out homeowners in trouble is just delaying the inevitable pain that has to occur to clear out the housing market. The housing market has many ties to the stock market and the entire economy. These “save everyone” moves are not how markets have to work. They have to put in their own bottoms on their own time table and many people have to suffer to get the bottom in. The expansive knowledge of fear bottoms and the intervention of the fed have brought me pause regarding the January bottom.

So the current buyers are the disillusioned ones that think the fed lowering rates is going to immediately turn everything around and fix everything, which usually is not the case. Also on board are the bottom picking crowd (which I was a member of until Wednesday of last week) that feel the fairly convincing bottom was real. Contrary bottom picking will still work, but we might need to see higher panic readings then we have seen to successfully put a long range bottom in.

]]> by: Black Crow http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32128 Sun, 02 Mar 2008 22:35:26 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32128 Well, to be honest, I've been wondering too if we've seen the bottom or not. Actually I still believe to a certain extend we have. Why ? Well, give me ONE reason I would BUY or ONE reason I wouldn't short !! That said, I think it's obvious the market should go down, so obvious that everybody who wanted to sell or wanted to short has done that ... or not ?? :o) Well, to be honest, I’ve been wondering too if we’ve seen the bottom or not. Actually I still believe to a certain extend we have. Why ?

Well, give me ONE reason I would BUY or ONE reason I wouldn’t short !!

That said, I think it’s obvious the market should go down, so obvious that everybody who wanted to sell or wanted to short has done that … or not ?? :o )

]]> by: Bill K http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32124 Sun, 02 Mar 2008 15:39:11 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32124 I just found your website about a month ago. I am a 10 year long die hard practicing contrarian. We have been sharing the same views about the market for the most part over the last month. Your charts and information are very informative, clear and concise. I really like that fact that you are willing to put your bold calls out there. Regardless of what happens, that is rare. Most people prefer to tell you they knew something was going to happen after the fact or tell you that you were wrong after the fact. I have really enjoyed reading this website. Like you, I like to use technical and contrary information to put bold calls out there when everyone else is scratching their head trying to figure out what his happening. I also include fundamentals in my analysis. I sense that you might be starting to have a little doubt in this rally by your lessened conviction now as many of us have now or already had. I might be reading too much into that. But around the middle of last week I personally started to question if the January bottom is going to end up being the actual bottom, as I had earlier thought. The rallies have been on low volume. The 50DMA also seems to be putting a solid cap on the market since early Nov. This last rally last week was stopped right on the nose by the 50DMA on the Dow chart and intra day the S&P500 hit it perfectly too. But what is the most troubling for me is that obvious high fliers like GOOG and AAPL and others have continued to hit new lows. Usually when you put in a nice panic bottom the former obvious high fliers are the first to take off in a big way. In hindsight, the initial rallies after the panic lows in January seem like they might have been driven more by short covering. The financials had unbelievable bounces, which I couldn't figure out at all and the short covering explanation is the only thing that really makes sense. They are now getting close to their lows again. Going forward, my new thesis is that the January bottom was a near term low and that we will break through that low to put in a new low. This just doesn't have a feel of a panic low recovery to me at this point. I am a firm believer in climbing the wall of worry, but I think that we have surpassed a normal wall of worry to get to a point where there are too many huge issues in the economy right now with inflation, a sharply devalued dollar, deficits, lessoning interest from foreign investors, etc. Even U.S. investors are increasingly putting their money to work on foreign soil. I am, for the most part, excluding the trading range idea right now because we couldn't get back up to around 1400 this 2nd run up on the S&P 500 and I think the 50DMA will continue to be a lid on the market in the near term. I am back to 100% cash and going to watch for all of the contrary information to tell us when a new panic low is in. Keep up the great work. Bill K I just found your website about a month ago. I am a 10 year long die hard practicing contrarian. We have been sharing the same views about the market for the most part over the last month. Your charts and information are very informative, clear and concise. I really like that fact that you are willing to put your bold calls out there. Regardless of what happens, that is rare. Most people prefer to tell you they knew something was going to happen after the fact or tell you that you were wrong after the fact. I have really enjoyed reading this website.

Like you, I like to use technical and contrary information to put bold calls out there when everyone else is scratching their head trying to figure out what his happening. I also include fundamentals in my analysis.

I sense that you might be starting to have a little doubt in this rally by your lessened conviction now as many of us have now or already had. I might be reading too much into that. But around the middle of last week I personally started to question if the January bottom is going to end up being the actual bottom, as I had earlier thought. The rallies have been on low volume. The 50DMA also seems to be putting a solid cap on the market since early Nov. This last rally last week was stopped right on the nose by the 50DMA on the Dow chart and intra day the S&P500 hit it perfectly too. But what is the most troubling for me is that obvious high fliers like GOOG and AAPL and others have continued to hit new lows. Usually when you put in a nice panic bottom the former obvious high fliers are the first to take off in a big way. In hindsight, the initial rallies after the panic lows in January seem like they might have been driven more by short covering. The financials had unbelievable bounces, which I couldn’t figure out at all and the short covering explanation is the only thing that really makes sense. They are now getting close to their lows again.

Going forward, my new thesis is that the January bottom was a near term low and that we will break through that low to put in a new low. This just doesn’t have a feel of a panic low recovery to me at this point. I am a firm believer in climbing the wall of worry, but I think that we have surpassed a normal wall of worry to get to a point where there are too many huge issues in the economy right now with inflation, a sharply devalued dollar, deficits, lessoning interest from foreign investors, etc. Even U.S. investors are increasingly putting their money to work on foreign soil. I am, for the most part, excluding the trading range idea right now because we couldn’t get back up to around 1400 this 2nd run up on the S&P 500 and I think the 50DMA will continue to be a lid on the market in the near term. I am back to 100% cash and going to watch for all of the contrary information to tell us when a new panic low is in.

Keep up the great work.

Bill K

]]> by: D http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32044 Sat, 01 Mar 2008 08:19:02 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-29th-2008-1556.html#comment-32044 Perhaps I am overlooking something, but when I review this week's sentiment review, I'm not seeing you taking a clear position on near-term, medium-term and long-term market prospects. Am I missing something? Perhaps I am overlooking something, but when I review this week’s sentiment review, I’m not seeing you taking a clear position on near-term, medium-term and long-term market prospects. Am I missing something?

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