Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of January 11th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Fri, 19 Mar 2010 22:32:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Sentiment Overview: Week Of June 13th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-33611 Sun, 15 Jun 2008 02:55:49 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-33611 [...] To find a more gloomy view from the retail investor’s camp we’d have to go back to mid January when the AAII sentiment reached 59% bearish. [...] […] To find a more gloomy view from the retail investor’s camp we’d have to go back to mid January when the AAII sentiment reached 59% bearish. […]

]]> by: Retirement Investment Advisor http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-32588 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 01:54:03 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-32588 I did a study of <a href="http://investmentscientist.com/2008/03/27/investor-sentiment-and-stock-market-return/" rel="nofollow">investor sentiment and subsequent one year stock returns</a>. The result corresponds to your conclusion. I did a study of investor sentiment and subsequent one year stock returns. The result corresponds to your conclusion.

]]> by: Sentiment Overview Week of March 14th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-32271 Sat, 15 Mar 2008 08:47:53 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-32271 [...] Not to be outdone, the AAII survey of retail investors is showing that this week, 59% of respondents are bearish. We&#8217;ve been here before; at the beginning of the year. Lets see if this time we can light a flame under this rocket. [...] […] Not to be outdone, the AAII survey of retail investors is showing that this week, 59% of respondents are bearish. We’ve been here before; at the beginning of the year. Lets see if this time we can light a flame under this rocket. […]

]]> by: Sentiment Overview: Week Of January 18th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-27121 Sat, 19 Jan 2008 04:04:41 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-27121 [...] AAII is showing panic-level bearishness again with 54% bears and only 24% bulls. Check out last week&#8217;s chart to see the correlation between such high bearish AAII sentiment and stock market performance. [...] […] AAII is showing panic-level bearishness again with 54% bears and only 24% bulls. Check out last week’s chart to see the correlation between such high bearish AAII sentiment and stock market performance. […]

]]> by: Keith Shepard http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26780 Mon, 14 Jan 2008 04:39:09 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26780 I agree with the "rally around the corner" thesis, but I think the corner is a bit up the road and lacking fuel at the moment. If you look at the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day MA, you see a very low percentage number of 27.20% (a number that's been dropping through out most of 2007). Classically, 20% could spark a "bottom spike", and maybe the timing is right with the Fed holding the gasoline can and a pack of Marlboro Reds. Technically, the market seems to have been eroding all year washing out weak convoluted speculation (i.e., the Financials &#38; Housing). Maybe the wringing is just about over. Beyond technicals, what would push the market higher in 2008? I agree with the “rally around the corner” thesis, but I think the corner is a bit up the road and lacking fuel at the moment. If you look at the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day MA, you see a very low percentage number of 27.20% (a number that’s been dropping through out most of 2007). Classically, 20% could spark a “bottom spike”, and maybe the timing is right with the Fed holding the gasoline can and a pack of Marlboro Reds.

Technically, the market seems to have been eroding all year washing out weak convoluted speculation (i.e., the Financials & Housing). Maybe the wringing is just about over. Beyond technicals, what would push the market higher in 2008?

]]> by: Sunday links: bottom fishing blues « Abnormal Returns http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26758 Sun, 13 Jan 2008 20:39:36 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26758 [...] Individual investors are none too optimistic. (Trader&#8217;s Narrative) [...] […] Individual investors are none too optimistic. (Trader’s Narrative) […]

]]> by: wes http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26705 Sat, 12 Jan 2008 17:46:52 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26705 It seems to me that bearish sentiment comes in two flavors. "I am bearish and I will liquidate my portfolio next week " is completely different from " I am bearish and I have already acted on my bearishness." The first guy has not yet signaled a bottom, the second guy has given such a signal. So, the nature of exactly what this sentiment indicator is would be helpful. It seems to me that bearish sentiment comes in two flavors. “I am bearish and I will liquidate my portfolio next week ” is completely different from ” I am bearish and I have already acted on my bearishness.”

The first guy has not yet signaled a bottom, the second guy has given such a signal.

So, the nature of exactly what this sentiment indicator is would be helpful.

]]> by: scoad http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26698 Sat, 12 Jan 2008 14:03:56 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26698 Babak to go along with those lovely sentiment figures take a look at 6 mos charts of S and P, Dow Ind, and Nas comp. I'm not a huge believer in charts but sometimes they are compelling, if all three aren't a beautiful representation of a dbbl bottom then I dont know what is. Will it work, I leave that to you, you're the technical guy. But WOW Babak to go along with those lovely sentiment figures take a look at 6 mos charts of S and P, Dow Ind, and Nas comp. I’m not a huge believer in charts but sometimes they are compelling, if all three aren’t a beautiful representation of a dbbl bottom then I dont know what is. Will it work, I leave that to you, you’re the technical guy. But WOW

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26695 Sat, 12 Jan 2008 13:22:47 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26695 Pat, someone already asked that: <a href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-during-a-bear-market-535.html" rel="nofollow">Sentiment in a bear market</a> btw, that and other interesting goodies are in the <a href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/best-of/" rel="nofollow">"Best Of"</a> section. cheers Pat, someone already asked that: Sentiment in a bear market
btw, that and other interesting goodies are in the “Best Of” section.
cheers

]]> by: Patrick Bateman http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26693 Sat, 12 Jan 2008 09:38:30 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-11th-2008-611.html#comment-26693 But how did it perform over the post dot com bear market? But how did it perform over the post dot com bear market?

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