Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of June 26th, 2009 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:41:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-48653 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:41:26 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-48653 Tyler, thanks for the kind words. As a short term phenomena yes, but it can't really continue. Take a look at what happened in 2003: Even as the market lifted off the March 2003 lows the <a href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-during-a-bear-market-535.html">AAII bearish reading actually increased</a>! Usually what tends to happen though is as the market goes up, sentiment improves... until it reaches a climax and then unwinds. An increasing skepticism could arise even as the market rises. But for a trend to develop you need people who believe in it (to fuel it). Tyler, thanks for the kind words.

As a short term phenomena yes, but it can’t really continue. Take a look at what happened in 2003: Even as the market lifted off the March 2003 lows the AAII bearish reading actually increased!

Usually what tends to happen though is as the market goes up, sentiment improves… until it reaches a climax and then unwinds. An increasing skepticism could arise even as the market rises. But for a trend to develop you need people who believe in it (to fuel it).

]]> by: Tyler Lang http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-47756 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:59:40 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-47756 Great update on sentiment Babak. I have checked in a few times in the past and find your sentiment work very useful and very complete. Your commentary also sheds light on this highly misunderstood topic. Thank you. Are you sure that your statement above is true though, "to get it to an extreme we have to either move up to get it there (bullish) or down (bearish)" Could we not see increasing negativity in the face of a rising market? If that happens, wouldn't that be bullish? Sorry about the what-ifs. But the disbelief in a rising market seems to be highly overweighted. thanks again, Tyler Great update on sentiment Babak. I have checked in a few times in the past and find your sentiment work very useful and very complete. Your commentary also sheds light on this highly misunderstood topic. Thank you.

Are you sure that your statement above is true though, “to get it to an extreme we have to either move up to get it there (bullish) or down (bearish)”

Could we not see increasing negativity in the face of a rising market? If that happens, wouldn’t that be bullish?

Sorry about the what-ifs. But the disbelief in a rising market seems to be highly overweighted.

thanks again,

Tyler

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-47059 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 19:15:25 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-47059 since sentiment is not at an extreme, we've been moving sideways. to get it to an extreme we have to either move up to get it there (bullish) or down (bearish), I think the probability of down is higher. since sentiment is not at an extreme, we’ve been moving sideways. to get it to an extreme we have to either move up to get it there (bullish) or down (bearish), I think the probability of down is higher.

]]> by: invertir en bolsa de valores http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-46092 Sat, 27 Jun 2009 16:52:55 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-june-26th-2009-2696.html#comment-46092 We can be bullish for a while, but I think market is still bearish in the long term. We can be bullish for a while, but I think market is still bearish in the long term.

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