Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of March 7th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Fri, 21 Nov 2008 10:25:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Scoad http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32206 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 03:07:49 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32206 As a little sentiment aside, Jim Cramer tells us Fri to" sell tech on strenght". Maybe if he's as right as he was in Dec. when he told us how right tech was right then we should consider buying a little. But then anecdotal sentimentalism isnt working any better than scientific sentimentalism, or anything else for that matter, so maybe we should just total up another cold one and watch the fires burn a little longer. Thanks very much for SOXX, Gold & oil Babak. Gold won't be done till the little specs run-and not even so much as a sqiggle yet. Third world still wants what !st world got but can their fire and thirst trump the !st worlds jaded hubris- very few seem to think so- thats good-MAYBE. As a little sentiment aside, Jim Cramer tells us Fri to” sell tech on strenght”. Maybe if he’s as right as he was in Dec. when he told us how right tech was right then we should consider buying a little. But then anecdotal sentimentalism isnt working any better than scientific sentimentalism, or anything else for that matter, so maybe we should just total up another cold one and watch the fires burn a little longer.
Thanks very much for SOXX, Gold & oil Babak.
Gold won’t be done till the little specs run-and not even so much as a sqiggle yet.
Third world still wants what !st world got but can their fire and thirst trump the !st worlds jaded hubris- very few seem to think so- thats good-MAYBE.

]]> by: Bourne http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32200 Sun, 09 Mar 2008 00:15:41 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32200 Hi. Babak, you have one of the most important posts about sentiment in your favourites folder: the one about sentiment in bear markets. My guess has to do with it: in a bear market we should expect just the strong accumulation of pesimism we are witnessing before any rally. (In fact, this is the single fact that has convinced me the most about he bearish condition of this market). Also: this bubble is a "strong hands" bubble. Nothing to do with dotcom retail investors' manias. This time, the guys that went nuts were the financial ones. So, I suspect the retail investors sentiment is even weaker a indicator for bullish rebounds. Thirdly: I'm watching aprox 11.500 dow for a serious attempt of a short term bottom. If this happens and my interpretation of sentiment is right, beware of any optimistic figure in put-call ratios etc afterwards. From a bearish market perspective, the bearish rebound should be fast and deep. Hi.
Babak, you have one of the most important posts about sentiment in your favourites folder: the one about sentiment in bear markets.
My guess has to do with it: in a bear market we should expect just the strong accumulation of pesimism we are witnessing before any rally. (In fact, this is the single fact that has convinced me the most about he bearish condition of this market).
Also: this bubble is a “strong hands” bubble. Nothing to do with dotcom retail investors’ manias. This time, the guys that went nuts were the financial ones. So, I suspect the retail investors sentiment is even weaker a indicator for bullish rebounds.
Thirdly: I’m watching aprox 11.500 dow for a serious attempt of a short term bottom. If this happens and my interpretation of sentiment is right, beware of any optimistic figure in put-call ratios etc afterwards. From a bearish market perspective, the bearish rebound should be fast and deep.

]]> by: wes http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32197 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 20:33:18 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32197 The denominator above should be (bullish PLUS bearish). For some reason the plus sign did not print. The denominator above should be (bullish PLUS bearish). For some reason the plus sign did not print.

]]> by: wes http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32196 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 20:30:33 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32196 These sentiment surveys are just that : opinions. I continue to look at the Rydex ratio, the ratio of the actual money invested by retail investors (regardless of what their "opinion" is) in bullish Rydex funds minus the actual money invested in bearish funds to the sum of the money invested in these funds. In other words, (bullish - bearish)/(bullish bearish). Now this is what retail investors are actually DOING (with their own money), rather than saying, and I think it is a much more important sentiment indicator for that reason. The Rydex ratio remains above (more bullish than) its level at the August lows, and well above its level at last March's lows. The ratio now is about 7% as compared with 2% at August lows and -2% (more bears than bulls) at last March lows. It may well be that the Rydex ratio will once again have to reflect more bears than bulls before this decline is over. These sentiment surveys are just that : opinions.

I continue to look at the Rydex ratio, the ratio of the actual money invested by retail investors (regardless of what their “opinion” is) in bullish Rydex funds minus the actual money invested in bearish funds to the sum of the money invested in these funds. In other words, (bullish - bearish)/(bullish bearish).

Now this is what retail investors are actually DOING (with their own money), rather than saying, and I think it is a much more important sentiment indicator for that reason.

The Rydex ratio remains above (more bullish than) its level at the August lows, and well above its level at last March’s lows.

The ratio now is about 7% as compared with 2% at August lows and -2% (more bears than bulls) at last March lows.

It may well be that the Rydex ratio will once again have to reflect more bears than bulls before this decline is over.

]]> by: Bill K http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32195 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 17:18:40 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32195 All of this weeks contrary information presents a compelling case for at least a quick bounce. In addition to that, we are right in the territory that most can and would look back on as a double bottom if we rally higher from here. I don't think very many people wanted to buy and hold new positions over the weekend, myself included. So it seems like we are set up for at least some kind of a double bottom bounce on Monday, unless we get some real bad news. The real litmus test of this rally will be how much conviction the market shows during that rally. The NASDAQ is already at new lows, but I still believe that we will break through to new lows on the S&P 500 and the Dow, but it might not happen next week. I think we will need to see even more extreme panic indicated to put a long term bottom in. All of this weeks contrary information presents a compelling case for at least a quick bounce. In addition to that, we are right in the territory that most can and would look back on as a double bottom if we rally higher from here. I don’t think very many people wanted to buy and hold new positions over the weekend, myself included. So it seems like we are set up for at least some kind of a double bottom bounce on Monday, unless we get some real bad news. The real litmus test of this rally will be how much conviction the market shows during that rally. The NASDAQ is already at new lows, but I still believe that we will break through to new lows on the S&P 500 and the Dow, but it might not happen next week. I think we will need to see even more extreme panic indicated to put a long term bottom in.

]]> by: Stock Trading Secrets » Blog Archive » Sentiment Overview: Week Of March 7th, 2008 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32193 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 12:08:13 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-march-7th-2008-1561.html#comment-32193 [...] GIOâ??s WeBlog wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt Is it just me or is this tape incredibly frustrating? We’re dripping lower, seemingly on our way to test the January lows. But it is anyone’s guess if we we’ll get a head fake lower and then reverse up or just cascade down into a continuous bear market decline, ala the 1970’s. To help light the way, here is the sentiment overview for the past week: Hulbert Newsletter Sentiment According to Mark Hulbert, the keeper of the HSNSI (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index), there is contrarian [...] […] GIOâ??s WeBlog wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt Is it just me or is this tape incredibly frustrating? We’re dripping lower, seemingly on our way to test the January lows. But it is anyone’s guess if we we’ll get a head fake lower and then reverse up or just cascade down into a continuous bear market decline, ala the 1970’s. To help light the way, here is the sentiment overview for the past week: Hulbert Newsletter Sentiment According to Mark Hulbert, the keeper of the HSNSI (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index), there is contrarian […]

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