Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of May 29th, 2009 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-29th-2009-2616.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 21 Mar 2010 19:00:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-29th-2009-2616.html#comment-40517 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 22:15:43 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-29th-2009-2616.html#comment-40517 Jim, is this for equity only data? don't think so. On the one hand, there is even less data for equity only but it strips out index/ETF data and provides a much cleaner perspective. There are so many ETFs out there that it does make a difference. kenny, yes it does and I keep a lazy eye on it. Mentioned it in the May 9th <a href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-8th-2009-2532.html/" rel="nofollow">sentiment overview</a> last. But then again, InvesTech says that insiders are not that 'smart' - and should be faded. So the fact that they are selling into this rally means that it is the real deal. This is the first time I've heard such a theory and the chart accompanying it does bear it out but still... strange. It merits more study. Jim, is this for equity only data? don’t think so. On the one hand, there is even less data for equity only but it strips out index/ETF data and provides a much cleaner perspective. There are so many ETFs out there that it does make a difference.

kenny, yes it does and I keep a lazy eye on it. Mentioned it in the May 9th sentiment overview last. But then again, InvesTech says that insiders are not that ’smart’ - and should be faded. So the fact that they are selling into this rally means that it is the real deal. This is the first time I’ve heard such a theory and the chart accompanying it does bear it out but still… strange. It merits more study.

]]> by: kenny yuman http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-29th-2009-2616.html#comment-40409 Sun, 31 May 2009 21:15:23 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-29th-2009-2616.html#comment-40409 Would insider trading, such as buy/sell ratio, qualify as a sentiment index? Would insider trading, such as buy/sell ratio, qualify as a sentiment index?

]]> by: Jim http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-29th-2009-2616.html#comment-40376 Sun, 31 May 2009 12:52:10 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-may-29th-2009-2616.html#comment-40376 Note that the high in the ISEE equity index occurred despite the market being below recent highs. I decided to look at the track record of the market (represented by SPY) after the ISEE gets to 225 or higher. This is the seventh occurrence since the bear market began 10/2007. ISEE high (&#62;=225) on day when not making recent high: ===================================== 12/31/2007 - 241 - immediately dumped (142-&#62;133) 12/30/2008 - 234 - up 3 more days (6%) then dumped (94-&#62;79) 11/06/2007 - 245 - immediately dumped (147-&#62;138) ISEE high (&#62;=225) within 1 day of new 30-day high: =================================== 05/05/2009 - 225 - up 3 more days (2.5%) then dropped marginally 05/16/2008 - 225 - up one more day (1%) then dumped (140-&#62;134) 12/26/2007 - 232 - immediately dumped (145-&#62;133) Unfortunately, the ISEE data only goes back to 3/2006, so we can't compare with the start of the previous bull market in 10/2002. The equity ISEE peaked at 250-280 in 2006 and 2007, but readings in the area we are in appear closer to neutral than bearish. Note that the high in the ISEE equity index occurred despite the market being below recent highs. I decided to look at the track record of the market (represented by SPY) after the ISEE gets to 225 or higher. This is the seventh occurrence since the bear market began 10/2007.

ISEE high (>=225) on day when not making recent high:
=====================================
12/31/2007 - 241 - immediately dumped (142->133)
12/30/2008 - 234 - up 3 more days (6%) then dumped (94->79)
11/06/2007 - 245 - immediately dumped (147->138)

ISEE high (>=225) within 1 day of new 30-day high:
===================================
05/05/2009 - 225 - up 3 more days (2.5%) then dropped marginally
05/16/2008 - 225 - up one more day (1%) then dumped (140->134)
12/26/2007 - 232 - immediately dumped (145->133)

Unfortunately, the ISEE data only goes back to 3/2006, so we can’t compare with the start of the previous bull market in 10/2002. The equity ISEE peaked at 250-280 in 2006 and 2007, but readings in the area we are in appear closer to neutral than bearish.

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