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	<title>Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of October 9th, 2009</title>
	<link>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html</link>
	<description>Freshly squeezed market commentary &#038; analysis</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 03:35:58 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>by: hedonist</title>
		<link>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55710</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:33:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55710</guid>
					<description>Things are way too overvalued, there is no bad news, so stocks are fahrtìñg around here; if there's good news the Dow will go up by abt 30; if thrs bad news it'll go down by 100 ;
this is the new trend in the new normal.

A. Indices have already risen a lot.

B. Data is going to continue to be positive, due to liquidity infusion and stimulus.

C. But all this has been factored in.

D. So if the news is good, how can markets not go up?

Ans: The positive economic data will keep the markets fumbling around at these levels, pending a catalyst to justify a reversal.

One such catalyst is the US dollar;
true things are bad and the $ is expected to weaken; but there is one phenomenon which draws a line for the fall, just like a high dividend yield stock doesnt fall too much after it has reached a level where the yield is even higher than a T-Bill.
This line for the $ is the Purchasing Power Parity Theory; an example is the Big Mac Index;
for instance you cant have a situation where you pay $1000 for your monthly groceries in London, and just $ 150 for the same in in New York, with both countries having similar living standards.. similarly all goods and services cant get cheap beyond a point; thats when the $ has to stabilise and or reverse, which is one of the scenarios under which we will see a fall in Indices.

Another such catalyst is failure of T-Bill auctions, which is not impossible.

Or a significant terrorist attack in the west, that kills more than 200 people, not the minor daily explosions, which have become a part of life. As regards the dollar, the following gives some idea of where we are:

We find ourselves at the crossroads with respect to the near-term direction of the dollar. From a technical perspective, my work argues that the dollar is extremely oversold and is &quot;ripe&quot; for a sharp, sustainable near- and possibly medium-term recovery rally.

With the dollar so oversold, it is dry timber susceptible to the slightest spark -- and another round of more forceful administration rhetoric or a few phone calls from the Federal Reserve trading desk to a few major players in the FX interbank market might trigger the necessary response.~
Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Things are way too overvalued, there is no bad news, so stocks are fahrtìñg around here; if there&#8217;s good news the Dow will go up by abt 30; if thrs bad news it&#8217;ll go down by 100 ;<br />
this is the new trend in the new normal.</p>
<p>A. Indices have already risen a lot.</p>
<p>B. Data is going to continue to be positive, due to liquidity infusion and stimulus.</p>
<p>C. But all this has been factored in.</p>
<p>D. So if the news is good, how can markets not go up?</p>
<p>Ans: The positive economic data will keep the markets fumbling around at these levels, pending a catalyst to justify a reversal.</p>
<p>One such catalyst is the US dollar;<br />
true things are bad and the $ is expected to weaken; but there is one phenomenon which draws a line for the fall, just like a high dividend yield stock doesnt fall too much after it has reached a level where the yield is even higher than a T-Bill.<br />
This line for the $ is the Purchasing Power Parity Theory; an example is the Big Mac Index;<br />
for instance you cant have a situation where you pay $1000 for your monthly groceries in London, and just $ 150 for the same in in New York, with both countries having similar living standards.. similarly all goods and services cant get cheap beyond a point; thats when the $ has to stabilise and or reverse, which is one of the scenarios under which we will see a fall in Indices.</p>
<p>Another such catalyst is failure of T-Bill auctions, which is not impossible.</p>
<p>Or a significant terrorist attack in the west, that kills more than 200 people, not the minor daily explosions, which have become a part of life. As regards the dollar, the following gives some idea of where we are:</p>
<p>We find ourselves at the crossroads with respect to the near-term direction of the dollar. From a technical perspective, my work argues that the dollar is extremely oversold and is &#8220;ripe&#8221; for a sharp, sustainable near- and possibly medium-term recovery rally.</p>
<p>With the dollar so oversold, it is dry timber susceptible to the slightest spark &#8212; and another round of more forceful administration rhetoric or a few phone calls from the Federal Reserve trading desk to a few major players in the FX interbank market might trigger the necessary response.~<br />
Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader
</p>
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		<title>by: jim jacob</title>
		<link>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55707</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:43:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55707</guid>
					<description>can you please give me a link that will post the latest data on the coppock especially when the october number comes out for the coppock??

many thanks,

jim jacob</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>can you please give me a link that will post the latest data on the coppock especially when the october number comes out for the coppock??</p>
<p>many thanks,</p>
<p>jim jacob
</p>
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		<title>by: Babak</title>
		<link>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55703</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:05:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55703</guid>
					<description>Pej, sitting on your hands is sometimes the most profitable thing :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pej, sitting on your hands is sometimes the most profitable thing <img src='http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />
</p>
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		<title>by: PEJ</title>
		<link>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55693</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:40:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-9th-2009-3105.html#comment-55693</guid>
					<description>Thanks Babak.
And what a great conclusion: &quot;When you don’t see an edge, don’t push your luck.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Babak.<br />
And what a great conclusion: &#8220;When you don’t see an edge, don’t push your luck.&#8221;
</p>
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