Comments on: Sentiment Overview: Week Of September 28st 2007

by: The Stock Market Carnival - Oct 1, 2007 Edition

Mon, 19 Nov 2007 10:32:19 +0000

[…] Babak presents Sentiment Overview: Week Of September 28st 2007 posted at Trader’s Narrative, saying, “A quick summary of stock market sentiment indicators for this week.” […]

by: SS

Thu, 15 Nov 2007 06:13:12 +0000

Robert, thanks but I’d prefer at least 10 to 15 years of data. I’m a M.D.. Why do you ask?

by: Robert Sanchez

Thu, 15 Nov 2007 04:04:35 +0000

SS,

I have nearly 7 years of both of those data sets that I have culled from Barrons. The data is already loaded onto an Excel spreadsheet. I also have Consensus data and Market Vane data for the same years. Moreover, I have almost 4 years of UBS sentiment data. Make me an offer if you are interested. I can be very reasonable.

By the way, what profession are you in?

Reach me at SANCHEZ3@OPTONLINE.NET

Rob

by: SS

Wed, 14 Nov 2007 20:15:05 +0000

Thanks for responding. Yes, the email is correct. I really don’t expect you just to give it to me for free however (you probably had to pay for it and you’re providing a nice service here).

by: Babak

Wed, 14 Nov 2007 20:04:21 +0000

SS, I’m pretty sure I have both AAII and II data. Let me double check and I’ll contact you. Is the email you provided in your comment (visible only to me) correct?

by: SS

Wed, 14 Nov 2007 19:53:51 +0000

I’m trying to obtain 10 or more years (i.e. 1997 to present) of AAII sentiment and Investor Intelligence Advisor sentiment data that may easily be transferred to Excel spreadsheet format. It is remarkably difficult to obtain BOTH of these historical data sets at the same time from vendors, so I am glad to pay somebody here to obtain this data. Please let me know if willing to help me.

by: Bourne

Sat, 13 Oct 2007 11:29:51 +0000

Thanks!
Now, I see two possible evolution from here:
(1) We are forming a major market top: we could correct a bit, achieve one, two, more weak, new highs in indexes with small investors entering and begining a bear market
(2) We are just in the very beginning of a outstanding bullish rally. Most stocks and money are just waiting expectantly, concentrating in a few stocks, but little by little this weak market breadth will grow.

One should be quite neutral about this two possibilities. Still, I agree a bit more with the bullish development. I have just seen the graphs for NYSE new highs/new lows of StockCharts here: http://www.technicalwatch.com/
Equities > Cumulative Charts
As you can see, the new highs/lows moving averages were bearish, then neutral and now are beginning to crooss upside.

by: Johan

Fri, 12 Oct 2007 09:21:19 +0000

Good comment Bourne!

by: Bourne

Thu, 11 Oct 2007 23:27:16 +0000

Hi all. Today we have seen new highs and a possible downturn. Given the low market breadth we have been having along this rally, I found it advisable to check with Paul Desmond’s analysis of market tops. Today and in eventual new highs.

While I have not the complete NYSE data, here it is the main point, i.e. % stocks in 52w highs. According to WSJ online:

383 new highs on a total of 3.405 NYSE stocks = 11,25%

In the 14 market tops analysed by Desmond, the breadth was:
max = 10,97% (1976)
min = 1,6% (1960)
average = 5,98%

So it seems that there is room for a correction then new highs (even if they are more weak). Also, I don’t see a massive participation of little investors, so usual in building a market top. But let’s be aware that we have touched the red line.

by: Johan

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 16:01:37 +0000

Let’s take a look on sentiment from another perspective. Much further away.

We have seen crisis articles about hedge funds and about the housing market, but still there has been no real crisis in these markets! We have a very low number of bankrupcies in all these crises sectors. And still there have been some kind of panic in the market.

So we haven’t really had a blown out super spike kind of thing going on in the market yet. THIS could be a sign of warning for the future of the market.

I still vote for an upgoing market for now.

Have a nice weekend!